Australian Open predictions: Jannik Sinner wins as Carlos Alcaraz & Novak Djokovic falter
The Australian Open kicks off in less than two days, with anticipation building for the first Grand Slam of 2025.
Here, we make our predictions for what should be a fascinating men’s singles event in Melbourne.
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First Quarter
Projected QF: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (8) Alex de Minaur
Twelve months on from winning his maiden Grand Slam, Sinner’s title defence is certainly not without controversy amid his ongoing doping case.
However, any pressure may have been eased by the fact he was a huge winner when the draw was made on Thursday – with the Italian handed a kind pathway forward.
Nicolas Jarry is an opening test he should pass comfortably, while the seeds he is projected to face before the last eight – 32nd seed Flavio Cobolli, and 13th seed Holger Rune – feel like fairly safe draws.
On paper, that should set up a quarter-final against home favourite de Minaur – who is 0-9 against the world No 1.
Top-ranked Aussie de Minaur is looking for a fourth straight Grand Slam quarter-final – and a first in Melbourne – and also does not face too many obvious threats on his way to the second week.
A potential fourth round versus 11th seed and 2023 runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas is intriguing, but the Greek has struggled for form in recent months.
Prediction: Sinner def de Minaur
Second Quarter
Projected QF: (4) Taylor Fritz vs (5) Daniil Medvedev
How will Fritz handle being a top-four seed at a major for the first time, and can three-time finalist Daniil Medvedev bounce back from a challenging 2024?
They are the key questions that define this second quarter, which puts the fourth and fifth seeds on a potential collision course.
US No 1 Fritz may not find things easy early, starting with an opener against returning compatriot Jenson Brooksby – who beat the world No 4 at the US Open back in 2021.
That could be followed by a round three meeting versus 30th seed Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and a fourth-round versus 16th seed Lorenzo Musettii.
It is not going to be an easy road for the American as he looks to better last year’s quarter-final result, but it will be a test of his staying power towards the top of the game.
For Medvedev, the ‘bogey’ match could be a third round meeting against 25th seed Alexei Popyrin, who won when they met at the Paris Masters – and will have a home crowd behind him.
The Russian may also face ninth seed Andrey Rublev, though he faces a fascinating opener against Joao Fonseca.
Prediction: Fritz def Medvedev
Australian Open News
Jannik Sinner insists ‘I haven’t done anything wrong’ as he’s asked about Nick Kyrgios criticism
Novak Djokovic astonishingly claims he was fed ‘poisoned’ food while detained in Australia in 2022
Third Quarter
Projected QF: (7) Novak Djokovic vs (3) Carlos Alcaraz
This is the crunch quarter and one that potentially pits two of the three biggest names in the draw against each other.
Seeded seventh in Melbourne, 10-time champion Djokovic faces a draw full of potential stumbling blocks.
The Serbian could face 26th seed Tomas Machac – who beat him in Geneva last year – in round three, or his Brisbane conqueror, Reilly Opelka.
Djokovic could also face 10th seed Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round, or even 24th seed and new Brisbane champion Jiri Lehecka.
At his most successful tournament, it would still be a massive shock if Djokovic failed to reach the last eight, though it won’t be straightforward for him to even reach his match versus Alcaraz.
The Spaniard’s stunning US Open loss shows he is far from impenetrable, though there is no obvious ‘danger’ match for him early on in Melbourne.
A fourth round meeting against 15th seed Jack Draper or 22nd seed Sebastian Korda may be tricky, though both may also have to battle their long-term physical struggles.
Prediction: Alcaraz def Djokovic
Fourth Quarter
Projected QF: (6) Casper Ruud vs (2) Alexander Zverev
Is this the tournament where Zverev ends his Grand Slam drought? A good draw early on certainly helps the German’s cause.
The world No 2 could face a returning Nick Kyrgios – or 28th seed Sebastian Baez – in round three, though both tests feel more than passable for Zverev after an impressive 2024.
Arguably the biggest danger for the German could come in round four, where he could face 14th seed Ugo Humbert or 20th seed Arthur Fils – whom he had big battles with in Hamburg and Paris last year.
Perhaps what makes this quarter so interesting is the upper section of it, which is led by sixth seed Ruud – a man who has only once reached the second week in Melbourne, back in 2021.
The Norwegian could face rising star Jakub Mensik in round two and is projected to face 29th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, who has found some form in Adelaide, in round three.
This part of the draw also stars 12th seed Tommy Paul, a former Australian Open semi-finalist who will fancy his chances after a career-best season last year.
Prediction: Zverev def Paul
Semi-final predictions
Sinner def Fritz
Zverev def Alcaraz
Final prediction
Sinner def Zverev
