Why Jannik Sinner cannot regain world No 1 ranking from Carlos Alcaraz at Australian Open
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the two overwhelming favourites for the Australian Open title, and neither man came under any real pressure in their opening matches at the tournament.
World No 1 Alcaraz started his campaign on the opening day of action on Sunday and faced little trouble against home favourite Adam Walton, claiming a 6-3, 7-6(2), 6-2 win over the Australian.
Meanwhile, world No 2 and defending champion Sinner was on court for just 67 minutes at the start of his tournament on Tuesday, leading 6-2, 6-1 when opponent Hugo Gaston was forced to retire from the match.
A fourth straight Grand Slam final between the two would surprise no one, with all eyes on who could triumph in Melbourne — but, unlike last year’s US Open final, the world No 1 ranking is not at stake at the Australian Open.
How do the ATP Rankings look now?
Alcaraz returned to world No 1 for the first time in two years after beating Sinner in the US Open final last September, and though the Italian briefly regained top spot later on in the season, it was the Spaniard who finished 2025 atop the ATP Rankings.
And, with neither man playing before the Australian Open — and not dropping any points — in the opening weeks of 2026, there has so far been no change at the top of the ATP Rankings.
World No 1 Alcaraz currently holds 12,050 points, 550 points more than world No 2 Sinner on 11,500 points.
The 550-point margin is not huge, considering the staggering 6,395-point gap between world No 2 Sinner and world No 3 Alexander Zverev.
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However, Alcaraz is assured of remaining as the world No 1 after the tournament regardless of how either man fares — and could in fact grow his lead.
Why can’t Sinner move back to world No 1?
As the defending champion in Melbourne, Sinner has a full 2,000 ranking points to defend at the Australian Open this fortnight.
That means that the best-case scenario for the Italian is that he defends his title, defends his ranking points, and therefore remains on 11,500 points at the start of the tournament.
Sinner has currently earned 50 points at the event this year for reaching the second round, placing him at 9,550 points in the ATP Live Rankings as things stand.
In contrast, Alcaraz has only 400 points to his name from the Australian Open last year, having fallen at the quarter-final stage to Novak Djokovic.
With 50 points to his name from this year’s event, the Spaniard is already on 11,700 points in the ATP Live Rankings, and was on 11,650 without any points from this year’s tournament.
That means that Alcaraz has always been guaranteed to stay at world No 1 following the Australian Open, regardless of his and Sinner’s results.
However, there is naturally a possibility that he could extend his lead over Sinner should he progress further than the quarter-final.
A run to the last eight would place Alcaraz on his current official total of 12,050 points, and any result improving on that would earn him more points.
Should Alcaraz hypothetically beat Sinner in the final, he would move to a staggering 13,650 points, while world No 2 Sinner would have 10,800 points.
Even if Sinner beat Alcaraz in the final, the Italian would remain on his pre-event total of 11,500 points, while Alcaraz’s tally would still increase to 12,950 points.
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