Will Jannik Sinner & Carlos Alcaraz’s Canadian Open withdrawals affect world No 1 battle?
The first Masters 1000 event of the hard-court summer is underway later this week – but the world’s top two players won’t be there.
World No 1 Jannik Sinner and world No 2 Carlos Alcaraz are both set to skip the Canadian Open in Toronto, the decision coming just weeks after they contested the Wimbledon final.
Sinner’s withdrawal was confirmed on Sunday, the Italian joining Novak Djokovic and Jack Draper in pulling out, while Alcaraz’s absence was reported by Marca just hours later.
The duo have swept the last seven Grand Slam tournaments between them and are a step ahead of the field right now, but could their withdrawals impact their battle for the No 1 ranking?
As it stands
A strong spring and early summer for Alcaraz, coupled with Sinner’s inability to win points during his three-month suspension earlier in the year, meant the Spaniard had closed the gap to the world No 1.
However, Sinner’s victory in the Wimbledon final has seen him surge comfortably in front of the world No 2 as things stand.
Having just 400 quarter-final points to defend at the tournament, the 2,000 points Sinner claimed for triumphing at the All England Club saw him surge to 12,030 points in the ATP Rankings.
In contrast, having entered the final as the reigning champion, Alcaraz’s 1,300 runner-up points saw him drop 700 points from 2024.
That leaves the 22-year-old on 8,600 points which, while keeping him comfortably ahead of world No 3 Alexander Zverev, leaves him 3,430 points down on Sinner.
Canadian Open withdrawal
The good news from Alcaraz’s perspective is that his ranking point tally will remain the same despite his withdrawal from action in Toronto.
That is because the Spaniard also pulled out of the event in 2024, due to the short turnaround from the Olympic Games, where he was a silver medallist.
It is a slightly different story for Sinner, who, after missing the Olympics due to illness, returned to action at the Masters 1000 event – which was held in Montreal twelve months ago.
The world No 1 reached the quarter-final before losing in three sets to Andrey Rublev, earning himself 200 ranking points.
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His absence in 2025 will mean that, once the tournament is complete, he will drop 200 points to 11,830 points in the ATP Rankings.
However, due to Alcaraz’s absence, the 23-year-old will still have a sizable 3,230-point cushion at the very top of the ATP Rankings.
Year-end No 1 race
Though it is not going to make much of an impact in the battle for the world No 1 ranking as things stand, it could have an impact in the overall race to the year-end No 1 ranking.
Despite missing four Masters 1000 events during his three-month doping ban, Sinner is currently just 1,540 points behind Alcaraz in the ATP Race to Turin, monitoring all points won in 2025.
Alcaraz has amassed 7,540 points across the season to date, with Sinner on 6,000 points despite competing in just five tournaments.
Over the past two years, the post-Wimbledon stretch of the season has traditionally been much stronger for the Italian than the Spaniard.
That was evident in 2024, when Sinner won the Cincinnati Open, US Open, Shanghai Masters, and ATP Finals in the closing months of the year.
Alcaraz did beat Sinner in a thrilling China Open final, though he was beaten early at the Cincinnati Open and US Open, and failed to progress out of his group at the ATP Finals.
He does have significantly fewer points to defend, which could work to his advantage.
However, his form will likely have to improve on the tennis he played during the hard-court spell in 2024, while we know exactly what Sinner is capable of at these events.
Despite his own Canadian Open withdrawal, the Italian may now be in pole position to finish the year as the world No 1, with Alcaraz unable to extend his lead for now.
