WTA clay season predictions: Sabalenka’s surge, Swiatek challenged, Raducanu’s ranking rise

Oli Dickson Jefford 02 Apr 2025 4:24 PM

Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Emma Raducanu.

Three months of the WTA season have come and gone – and there has certainly been plenty to talk about.

Madison Keys was a surprise maiden Grand Slam winner in Melbourne, while Aryna Sabalenka has grown her lead as the world No 1 over a sometimes-troubled Iga Swiatek.

There have been significant ups and downs for American aces Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, with Mirra Andreeva the big breakout start.

All eyes now turn to the clay-court season, with the opening events of the swing already underway in Charleston and Bogota.

Here, we predict who will triumph at the biggest European events this spring – and assess some of the key talking points.

(WTA 500) Stuttgart Open – April 14-20

Though not a WTA 1000 event, the Stuttgart Open has one of the strongest fields of any event on the WTA Tour – and is set to feature several of the WTA’s biggest names once again in 2025.

Defending champion Elena Rybakina will not be in action, but two-time champion Swiatek, world No 1 Sabalenka, US stars Gauff and Pegula, and Andreeva are all set to compete.

Indoor clay should provide perfect conditions for Swiatek, and her past success at this tournament should make her a contender – but her bumpy form in 2025 makes her more susceptible.

After a strong start to the year – and a recent triumph in Miami – Sabalenka, who has lost three finals in Stuttgart, could finally lifting the title.

Predicted champion: Sabalenka

(WTA 1000) Madrid Open – April 21 – May 4

Sabalenka was the 2021 and 2023 Madrid champion, and could have won a third title in 2024 – missing three match points in an extraordinary final as Swiatek took home the title.

That was the final big clay title Swiatek needed to complete her collection, and it was a nice slice of revenge for the Pole after defeat in the 2023 final to her leading rival.

However, conditions are well-suited for Sabalenka in Madrid, and she is a provisional favourite to match Petra Kvitova’s record of three titles.

Predicted champion: Sabalenka

(WTA 1000) Italian Open – May 5-18

The final big event before the second major of the year, all eyes will be on who triumphs in Rome – the event that provides perhaps the most similar conditions to Roland Garros.

Swiatek has been the champion three of the past four years and breezed past Sabalenka in the 2024 final, though her level of tennis has not been quite as high since then.

That could open the door for the rest of the WTA field, and perhaps home favourite Jasmine Paolini will fancy her chances of a deep run

Though Sabalenka, Gauff, Pegula, and Andreeva will fancy their chances, surely Swiatek is too good not to win at least one big clay title this swing.

Predicted champion: Swiatek

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(Grand Slam) French Open – May 26 – June 8

Can Swiatek move ahead of Justine Henin with a fifth Roland Garros title? Can Sabalenka win her first major outside of hard courts? Can Gauff claim her second Grand Slam – or Pegula her first?

There are so many key talking points ahead of Roland Garros already, and that sense of questioning and anticipation will surely only grow as the clay swing progresses.

It has been three years since Swiatek lost at the French Open but she was beaten by Zheng Qinwen in the Olympic semi-final on this very site last summer – and hasn’t quite been the same player since.

While she has to be one of the big favourites, she does not feel as untouchable as she did before, so who could take advantage?

The answer to that could be the woman who has been reliably going deep at every major for quite some time.

Predicted champion: Sabalenka

Sabalenka’s success

With titles in Miami and Brisbane, and further Australian Open and Indian Wells finals to her name, Sabalenka has arguably been the standout player of 2025 so far.

And, though most her success has come on hard courts, she is clearly capable of success on clay.

Not only has she twice won in Madrid, but she is also a former Stuttgart and Rome finalist – and was a point away from the French Open final in 2023.

With 3,000 points between her and world No 2 Swiatek – and with her rival a little off her best and facing a mammoth amount of points – the Belarusian has the chance to showcase her dominance this spring.

Swiatek’s challenge

In the European clay swing last year, Swiatek lost to Rybakina in the Stuttgart semi-finals – but then won in Madrid, Rome, and Paris.

The Pole was dominant, but she has not won a title since then and, while her results at the start of 2025 have not been as disastrous as many have claimed, she is clearly not quite at her best.

A slight downturn on her incredible 2024 results should be expected, and that will likely increase the gap between her and world No 1 Sabalenka.

But, one thing is for sure; it would be unwise to discount her on this surface.

Raducanu’s ranking chance

Emma Raducanu is unlikely to be contending for WTA 1000 and Grand Slam titles this clay swing, but that doesn’t mean this can’t be a successful spell for her.

The Brit moved back into the top 50 thanks to her impressive Miami Open quarter-final run, and the world No 48 has a significant rankings opportunity.

Raducanu only has 108 Stuttgart quarter-final points and 10 Madrid Open points to defend on clay, having skipped Rome and the French Open a year ago.

She has decided to skip Stuttgart and instead play the WTA 250 event in Rouen this year, before expected campaigns in Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros.

Back playing well, and with good clay results previously, a return to the top 40 is more than possible for the Brit.

US battle

Keys’ stunning Australian Open title run has pushed her up to a new high of world No 5 in the rankings – though she is still only the third-ranked American.

World No 3 Gauff and world No 4 Pegula sit directly ahead of her in what is building up to be an intriguing battle for the US No 1 position.

Having missed the European clay season in 2024 due to injury, Pegula could be ready to strike, with no points to defend.

In contrast, Gauff has Rome and French Open semi-final points to her name, while Keys has Madrid semi-final and Strasbourg title points.