WTA Rankings: How Iga Swiatek can chase down world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka at China Open

Oli Dickson Jefford 24 Sep 2025 10:00 AM

Pictured L-R: Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.

WTA Tour stars Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.

Fresh off her impressive run to a 25th WTA Tour title at the Korea Open, all eyes will be on whether Iga Swiatek can continue her current momentum at the China Open in Beijing this week.

World No 2 Swiatek lifted the China Open title on her tournament debut in 2023, as the tournament returned for the first time since 2019, though she was unable to defend her title in 2024 due to her provisional suspension for a doping violation.

However, with the 24-year-old back this year, she has the chance to regain the title she won two years ago, and potentially continue her quest to chase down world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the WTA Rankings.

What we know

Swiatek was always going to have the chance to chase down Sabalenka across the Asian swing, with the world No 1 having significantly more points to defend.

However, the Belarusian’s decision to withdraw from the China Open has boosted Swiatek’s hopes of a return to the top of the WTA Rankings this Autumn, and action in Beijing offers a key opportunity to make up ground.

The Pole has already decreased the gap by 500 points thanks to her triumph at the Korea Open this weekend; as it stands, Sabalenka holds 11,225 points, with Swiatek on 8,433 points.

But, having been provisionally suspended during the China Open back in 2024, Swiatek has no points to defend at the WTA 1000 event this year — meaning any result will see her close the gap.

While the gap is large enough for Sabalenka to maintain her position as the world No 1 regardless of any results in Beijing, Swiatek could move within striking distance of her main rival.

Ranking ramifications

Sabalenka earned 215 ranking points for reaching the quarter-final last year, meaning she will drop to 11,010 points when the WTA Rankings update post-tournament.

As previously mentioned, Swiatek cannot overtake Sabalenka as the world No 1 this fortnight — the gap is simply too large — but the Pole could return to over 9,000 points with a strong run.

With no points to defend, the six-time Grand Slam champion is already up 10 points to 8,443 in the WTA Live Rankings, with her opening match of the tournament likely taking place on Friday or Saturday.

Should Swiatek beat either Yulia Putintseva or Yuan Yue in round two, she would move up slightly to 8,498 points, kickstarting her quest for a significant rankings surge.

Hypothetically, she would then move to 8,553 points if she were to reach the fourth round, and then 8,648 points with a run to the quarter-final.

A semi-final showing would place Swiatek on 8,823 points, with a run to either the final or the title pushing her back above 9,000 points in the WTA Rankings.

Any run would close the gap, but a run to the final — or even better, the title — would prove hugely significant.

That would give Swiatek the chance to potentially challenge Sabalenka’s world No 1 ranking at the final WTA 1000 event of 2025 in Wuhan, where she has no points to defend — but reigning champion Sabalenka has 1,000.

Tennis News

Aryna Sabalenka confirms she is not missing tennis after posting romantic images

Coco Gauff could face a devastating rankings collapse in the final weeks of the season

Iga Swiatek ranking point scenarios

Champion: 9,433 (+1,000)
Runner-up: 9,083 (+650)
Semi-final: 8,823 (+390)
Quarter-final: 8,648 (+215)
Round 4: 8,553 (+120)
Round 3: 8,498 (+65)
Round 2: 8,443 (+10)