WTA world No 1 race: Aryna Sabalenka against Iga Swiatek for the top spot
Aryna Sabalenka has a narrow lead over Iga Swiatek in the WTA Rankings, but can the Pole return to No 1 in the rankings after the Qatar Open?
The short answer is no and you will have to read further if you want an explanation.
Sabalenka is currently in her 25th week at No 1 as she has been sitting pretty at the top of the rankings since last October when she replaced her great rival, who slipped to No 2, in the standings.
The Belarusian started the Australian Open with a 1,525 point lead over Swiatek, but that has since been reduced to a mere 186 points following the season-opening Grand Slam.
Sabalenka dropped 2,000 points as the defending champion and then earned 1,300 again after finishing runner-up to Madison Keys while Swiatek dropped 100 points after losing in the third round in 2024, but won 780 for reaching the last four this year.
Ahead of the first WTA 1000 event of the year in the Middle East, Sabalenka sits on 8,956 points and Swiatek on 8,770.
But even if the reigning world No 1 loses early at the Qatar Open, Swiatek won’t be able to replace her as the Pole is the defending champion while Sabalenka didn’t play last year.
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Swiatek has dropped 1,000 points in the Live Rankings from last year’s title run so she effectively sits on 7,890 points after winning her opening match against Maria Sakkari.
She can only gain a maximum of 1,000 points again this week so the best she can do is move back to 8,770 points after the tournament.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, skipped the tournament last year so she will not drop points in Qatar and will leave with a minimum of 8,956 points, even if she fails to win any matches.
A title run could see her open a large gap over Swiatek again.
WTA top 10 before the Qatar Open:
1. Aryna Sabalenka – 8,956
2. Iga Swiatek – 8,770
3. Coco Gauff – 6,538
4. Jasmine Paolini 5,288
5. Jessica Pegula – 4,861
6. Madison Keys – 4,680
7. Elena Rybakina – 4,588
8. Zheng Qinwen – 4,095
9. Emma Navarro – 3,709
10. Paula Badosa – 3,588
No 3 Coco Gauff can close the gap to Swiatek if she wins the title as she is only dropping 10 points, Jasmine Paolini is also only defending 10 points while Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys are not defending any points.
However, it is a little bit tighter further down the list as Elena Rybakina, Zheng Qinwen, Emma Navarro and Paula Badosa could move up or drop down.
Navarro has already lost in the second in Qatar, but she is expected to remain in the top 10 with Badosa likely to move up one place.
As for the battle for the No 1 ranking, things will heat up again at the Dubai Tennis Championships as Swiatek can replace Sabalenka after the tournament, but it all depends on their results in Qatar and next week’s WTA 1000 tournament.
