WTA world No 1 race: Can Iga Swiatek overtake Aryna Sabalenka after Dubai?
The battle for the No 1 spot in the WTA Rankings remains a tightly contested affair between Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek.
Sabalenka has topped the rankings over the last 17 weeks as she replaced her great Polish rival at No 1 in October last year.
Having also spent eight weeks at No 1 in 2023, her total of 25 weeks puts her joint-17th with Naomi Osaka in the all-time list for most weeks at the top of the rankings.
She will move ahead of Osaka on Monday and join Dinara Safina on 26 weeks in 16th place, but she is now already assured of also moving ahead of the Russian the following week.
The reason?
Swiatek can no longer replace her at No 1 in the WTA Rankings after the second Middle East WTA 1000 event in the United Arab Emirates.
Before this week’s Qatar Open, Sabalenka had a slender 186-point advantage as she was on 8,956 points compared to Swiatek’s 8,770.
Despite Sabalenka’s second-round exit from the tournament and Swiatek’s run to the semi-final, the Belarusian’s lead will grow to 806 points as the world No 1 didn’t have any points to defend from 2024 while the Pole was defending 1,000 points.
WTA News
2025 WTA Dubai draw: Emma Raducanu and Aryna Sabalenka set to face familiar opponents
Teenage sensation tipped to make rankings breakthrough by leading tennis voice
The end result was Sabalenka added only 10 points to her tally while Swiatek had a 610-point swing (dropped 1,000 points, but then picked up 390 for a semi-final run).
They will head to Dubai with Sabalenka on 8,966 points and Swiatek on 8,160 and it is once again impossible for the latter to return to the top after the second WTA 1000 tournament of the season even if she wins the title.
Sabalenka is defending only 10 points so she will remain on 8,966 points even if she loses in the second round (the top eight players have a bye in the first round) while Swiatek will drop 360 points after reaching the last four last year.
The Pole will effectively start the tournament 7,780 points and can get to a maximum of 8,780.
Behind them, Coco Gauff starts on 6,538 points and defends 215 points, defending champion Jasmine Paolini (5,398) will drop 1,000 points, Jessica Pegula (5,076) doesn’t have any points to defend while Elena Rybakina (4,153) will drop 215 points.
And the task won’t get easier for Swiatek during the Sunshine Double as she is once again defending a lot of points as she won the Indian Wells Open last year while Sabalenka lost in the fourth round.
The Pole then lost in the fourth round in Miami in 2024 while Sabalenka exited the WTA 1000 tournament in the third round.
