Aryna Sabalenka suffers big rankings blow after shock Indian Wells defeat

Ewan West
Aryna Sabalenka upset in Indian Wells 2024
Aryna Sabalenka was upset by Emma Navarro in Indian Wells

Aryna Sabalenka has lost significant ground to Iga Swiatek in the battle for the WTA world No 1 ranking after her surprise defeat to Emma Navarro at the 2024 Indian Wells Open. 

The two-time Australian Open champion suffered a 3-6, 6-3, 2-6 upset loss to 23rd-ranked Navarro in the last 16 of the WTA 1000 tournament on Wednesday.

Navarro earned the only break of the opening set to take a 5-3 lead, before saving a break point at 30-40 as she served out the set. Sabalenka responded by earning her first break of the match to go 3-1 up in the second set and this was enough to level the match as she did not face a break point during the set.

The Belarusian then fell 1-3 behind in the third set and was unable to convert a chance to get back on serve as Navarro crucially held for 4-1.

The 22-year-old American then broke Sabalenka’s serve for the third time in the deciding set to seal the biggest victory of her career in convincing fashion.

Navarro’s huge win, which took her into the quarter-finals of a WTA 1000 event for the first time, will at least see her rise to a new career-high ranking of world No 20 – and this could get better if she progresses further.

While Sabalenka will remain as the world No 2 when the rankings are updated, she will lose a hefty 530 points after having made the final in Indian Wells last year.

This will see Sabalenka’s points total drop from 8,725 to 8,195, giving world No 1 Swiatek a big opportunity to extend her lead at the top.

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Swiatek is still in the tournament and will face Caroline Wozniacki in the quarter-finals on Thursday. Having made the semi-finals in Indian Wells in 2023, the 22-year-old Pole will remain on her current points tally of 10,105 if she exits in the last four again this year, but will drop to 9,930 if she loses to Wozniacki in the last eight.

The four-time Grand Slam champion will increase her total if she progresses to the final, with a maximum of 10,715 points attainable by winning the title.

World No 3 Coco Gauff could cut the gap to Sabalenka to just 435 points if she triumphs in Indian Wells as a title run would move her onto 7,760 points. The 20-year-old American dismantled Elise Mertens 6-0, 6-2 to reach the quarter-finals in Indian Wells on Wednesday.