Aryna Sabalenka, Jasmine Paolini handed huge WTA Rankings chance at China Open
The Asian swing is already underway but action will heat up next week, with the China Open in Beijing getting underway.
Some of the biggest names on the WTA Tour will be in action but there have been some key withdrawals, with defending champion Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina both pulling out.
Swiatek and Rybakina’s withdrawals work to the advantage of several players, but perhaps none could benefit as much as Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini.
We look at the rankings advantages both women could secure with a significant run in Beijing.
Sabalenka looks to close No 1 gap
Sabalenka can’t replace Swiatek as the world No 1 in Beijing, but the US Open champion – who was at the top of the rankings 12 months ago – can close the gap significantly.
Swiatek claimed 1,000 ranking points for her 2023 triumph and her decision to pull out of the tournament means she will fall from 10,885 points to 9,885 points when the rankings update post-event.
That still puts her clear of Sabalenka, who currently has 8,716 points.
However, the three-time Grand Slam champion was beaten comparatively early in Beijing in 2023, falling in the quarter-final to Rybakina.
That means she has only 215 points to defend – 785 less than Swiatek.
The gap between the two will decrease no matter what, but Sabalenka has been handed the chance to put her foot down and move within striking distance ahead of the rest of the season.
A run to what would be a fourth title of 2024 would place the 26-year-old on 9,501 points, less than 400 points behind Swiatek.
Should that happen, Sabalenka could then usurp the Pole at the Wuhan Open the following week.
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Paolini targets latest breakthrough
Paolini’s rise has been one of the biggest talking points – and surprises – of 2024.
The Italian ended 2023 as the world No 30 but now sits fifth in the WTA Rankings following a season that has seen her reach the French Open and Wimbledon finals, and win her first WTA 1000 title in Dubai.
Now, the 28-year-old has the chance to make Italian history and potential rise even higher.
Paolini will hold 5,348 ranking points on Monday, just behind world No 4 Rybakina on 5,871 points.
However, Rybakina will ultimately drop the 390 points she gained for her Beijing semi-final run in 2023, slipping down to 5,481 points.
In contrast, Paolini was beaten in the third round of the event a year ago, meaning she has just 65 points to defend.
A quarter-final run should be enough for the Italian – now set to be the third seed – to secure a new high of fourth, matching Francesca Schiavone’s record for being the highest-ranked Italian woman in history.
It is also hypothetically possible for Paolini to overtake Jessica Pegula and move to No 3, though that scenario is unlikely.
That would involve the Italian winning the title, and Pegula falling early on.
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