Why Carlos Alcaraz may have a long wait to reclaim world No 1 ranking
Carlos Alcaraz ticked off another big milestone in his career as he won his first indoor hardcourt tournament in Rotterdam last weekend, but his hopes of returning to the top of the ATP Rankings are on hold for now.
Alcaraz was in dominant form as he stormed to victory on a surface he admits may not be his best, with his displays constantly drawing gasps from an excited Dutch crowd.
Even though Alcaraz finished the ATP 500 tournament as a champion, it did not impact his ATP Ranking, as he is still behind Alexander Zverev and world No 1 Jannik Sinner in the current list.
Alcaraz is due to play again next week when he takes his place in the star-studded draw for the ATP 500 Qatar Open, with Sinner and Novak Djokovic also entered into that event.
Once again, a win in the Doha desert would not propel Alcaraz up the ATP Rankings as he is currently 725 ranking points behind Germany’s Zverev, who could widen that advantage as he is playing in a clay court event in Argentina this week.
Alcaraz will then have 1,000 points to defend next month, as he looks to reclaim the ATP Masters title he won so impressively in Indian Wells last year.
He also has 200 ranking points to defend from last year’s Miami Open that will come up after the Indian Wells event, where Sinner will be defending 1,000 points after his win in Florida a year ago.
With a commanding lead at the top of the ATP Rankings, Sinner is assured of being No 1 well into the clay court season, that gets underway in Europe in April.
Of course, the unknown in this battle for the world No 1 ranking is the court hearing Sinner faces in mid-April, after the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) appealed against a decision not to ban the Italian from tennis after he failed two doping tests at Indian Wells last year.
Sinner successfully argued that he was not responsible for the clostebol entering his system, with the International Tennis Integrity Agenda (ITIA) finding in Sinner’s favour and opiting against a ban for the world No 1.
The ITIA has confirmed to Tennis365 that Sinner faces a minimum one-year suspension if the verdict goes against him, with Sky Sports Tennis presenter Gigi Salmon stunned by the prospect of a long ban for the leading man in the men’s game right now.
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“Sinner is the player to beat at the moment, but in terms of the court hearing, we don’t know how it’s going to go and I just can’t imagine him being banned for a year,” Salmon told Tennis365 in an exclusive interview.
“When I was asked to make my predictions for year-end No 1, I went with Alcaraz because of the situation around Sinner.
“It’s going to be harder for Novak Djokovic from now on, Sascha Zverev still has that issue in Grand Slams in terms of getting over the line, so the default will be Carlos Alcaraz if Sinner is banned.”
Salmon admits she is astonished by Sinner’s ability to block out the prospect of a long ban from the sport and continue to play at such a high level, with his Australian Open win another example of his flawless brilliance.
“It is hard to see a weakness in Sinner,” added Salmon. “He said in Australia that the weakness in his game may be his volleys, but they are not that bad.
“It was a bit like Djokovic in his prime when you might have said his weakness was his overheads, but how many of those would he hit in a match?
“With Sinner, I’m struggling to find a weakness. How do you ruffle him, how do you get under his skin? How do you get him off-balance? The skiing he did has helped his balance, which is just perfection.
“What impressed me most about him last year was that with everything going on was how mentally strong he stayed. It was just ridiculous.
“He will know the punishment he could get and if it is one year, that would be seismic. To continue to play the way he has done with that hanging over him is amazing.”
With 2,000 points to defend as he looks to defend the French Open and Wimbledon titles in the European summer, Alcaraz may have to wait until September and October to have a shot at Sinner’s world No 1 ranking.
Zverev will have a say in the ranking race as he will be eager to claim top spot for the first time in his career, with the battle for the top spot in the rankings will shift dramatically if Sinner is banned from tennis for a substantial period from the middle of April.
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