How Elena Rybakina can improve hopes of WTA Finals glory after sealing impressive qualification
Elena Rybakina was in charge of her own WTA Finals destiny heading into the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, and the Kazakh has achieved what she needed to seal her spot in Riyadh.
After her impressive triumph at the Ningbo Open last weekend, Rybakina needed just two wins in Tokyo to overhaul Mirra Andreeva and claim a spot inside the top eight of the WTA Race to Riyadh.
The world No 7 was not handed an easy draw at the WTA 500 event in Tokyo but, after dispatching Leylah Fernandez in round two, a 6-3, 7-6(4) quarter-final win over Victoria Mboko on Friday was enough for Rybakina to move inside the top eight.
The 26-year-old now holds 4,350 points for 2025 to date, with Andreeva remaining on 4,319 after not being able to play this week — the last qualifying week available for the year-end championships.
Rybakina completes the top eight field for the season-ending showpiece thanks to her qualification, joining Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys, and Jasmine Paolini.
She joins Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff, and Pegula in all qualifying for three consecutive years, the first time since the round-robin format was introduced in 2003 that five women have all qualified for three straight seasons.
While the former Wimbledon champion no longer needs to worry about sealing qualification, she can still increase her chances of success at the WTA Finals in Riyadh.
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What boost can Rybakina achieve?
The eight women in action in Riyadh will be split into two groups of four for the round-robin stage, with the players finishing in first and second progressing to the semi-final.
The players are split in terms of ranking position to ensure the groups are as balanced and fair as possible, with certain players unable to land in the same group.
For example, No 1 qualifier Sabalenka and No 2 qualifier Swiatek can not be in the same group as each other, and neither can No 3 qualifier Gauff and No 4 qualifier Anisimova.
The No 5 qualifier, Pegula, cannot be in the same group as the No 6 qualifier, and the No 7 and No 8 qualifier also cannot be in the same group as each other.
The majority of qualifying positions are set, though Rybakina can still improve her position.
By beating Mboko on Friday, she not only pushed Andreeva down to ninth in the race and eliminated her rival, she also overtook Paolini’s haul of 4,325 points — pushing the Italian down to eighth position.
Rybakina currently sits in seventh place, though that still means she would be the lowest-ranked woman in her group, potentially affecting her chances of progressing to the semi-finals.
However, the Kazakh can overhaul Australian Open champion Keys in sixth position.
How can she do it?
Rybakina holds 4,350 points in the live race, with Keys — who has been absent since the US Open — in sixth place on 4,395 points.
However, already moved above Andreeva and Paolini in the 2025 standings, Rybakina now needs just one more win to overtake Keys as well.
Rybakina faces sixth seed Linda Noskova in her Tokyo semi-final on Saturday and should she seal victory, she would move to 4,480 points and therefore overhaul Keys.
That would make the Kazakh the sixth seed in Riyadh, and ensure that only two women in her round-robin group are ranked higher than her.
While that would still make progression to the semi-final difficult — and both Keys and Paolini will still not be easy players to beat — it will give her a slight boost, and she would undoubtedly approach the year-end showpiece with more momentum than anyone else.
