How Aryna Sabalenka’s China Open exit affects WTA Rankings and Race battles with Iga Swiatek
Aryna Sabalenka missed the opportunity to further close the gap to Iga Swiatek at the top of the WTA Rankings after her quarter-final exit at the 2024 China Open.
The Belarusian star’s 15-match winning streak ended with her 6-7(5), 6-2, 4-6 loss to world No 49 Karolina Muchova in an entertaining last eight encounter in Beijing.
It was a story of lost chances for Sabalenka, who failed to convert two set points in a tight opening set and saw a 4-2 lead in the deciding set slip away.
Sabalenka has made up ground on world No 1 Swiatek with her China Open run, but she was unable to take full advantage of her rival’s absence at the WTA 1000 event.
The world No 2’s recent triumphs in Cincinnati and at the US Open left her on 8,716 points heading into Beijing.
Swiatek was 2,169 points clear of Sabalenka on 10,885 points prior to the event, which she pulled out of.
Having won the China Open last year, Swiatek’s withdrawal from the 2024 edition will see her drop the 1,000 points from her victory — taking her tally to 9,885.
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If Sabalenka had secured the Beijing title, she would have had 9,716 points and closed the gap to Swiatek to just 169 points.
However, Sabalenka’s quarter-final exit matched her run at the 2023 China Open, meaning she will remain on the 8,716 points she started the tournament with.
The 26-year-old is now, therefore, 1,169 points behind Swiatek in the live WTA Rankings — exactly 1,000 points closer than she was before the WTA 1000 event.
Sabalenka also missed the opportunity to overtake Swiatek in the WTA Race to Riyadh — the yearly ranking system that decides the eight qualifiers for the WTA Finals.
The three-time Grand Slam champion is now, though, just 194 points behind Swiatek in the Race with the addition of the 215 points she gained in Beijing. Swiatek is first in the Race with 8,285 points, while Sabalenka sits second on 8,091.
Sabalenka will have another great chance to reduce the gap to Swiatek in the world No 1 battle at the Wuhan Open — another Chinese WTA 1000 tournament.
Swiatek has withdrawn from Wuhan, which will begin on October 7, after splitting with long-time coach Tomasz Wiktorowski.
Sabalenka won the title in Wuhan the previous two times it was held in 2019 and 2018, with the tournament cancelled between 2020 and 2023 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Belarusian’s quarter-final run in Beijing may have been the perfect preparation for Wuhan as it would have been a tight turnaround had she gone further.
As was the case in Beijing, a title run in Wuhan would leave Sabalenka just 169 points behind Swiatek.
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