WTA Finals: How Iga Swiatek can regain world No 1 from Aryna Sabalenka
For the second straight season, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will battle it out for the year-end No 1 ranking at the WTA Finals.
Last year, Sabalenka was in pole position heading into the year-end championships in Cancun, only for a flawless Swiatek to storm to the title and return to the very top.
Twelve months on, Sabalenka is again the world No 1 but holds a more emphatic lead at the top, and is a significant favourite to head into 2025 as the top-ranked player.
However, it is still possible for Swiatek to again deny her chief rival – even if it might prove tricky.
We take you through what both women need to finish the year atop the rankings.
As it stands
With last year’s Finals points coming off the world rankings on Monday – coupled with points deductions for both women – there is currently a significant gap between the two.
Sabalenka sits well out in front on 9,016 points, while Swiatek has fallen to 7,910 points.
However, with no points to now officially defend in Riyadh, both women approach this event effectively with a clean slate.
What ranking points are up for grabs?
The WTA Finals work a little differently than pretty much any other event on the WTA Finals, with the round robin system ensuring every player plays at least three matches – assuming they don’t withdraw.
Each round robin match is worth 200 ranking points, meaning that you would earn 600 ranking points if you won all three of your matches.
Should you then win your semi-final and reach the final, you would earn an extra 400 ranking points, which are then added to your group stage total.
The winner of the tournament then receives an extra 500 ranking points, meaning that a player who wins all their group stage matches and then wins the title would earn 1,500 ranking points.
A player with a 2-1 group stage record would earn 1,300 ranking points if they won the event, while a player with a 1-2 record would earn 1,100 points.
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Advantage Sabalenka
With a lead of 1,106 points over her nearest rival, Sabalenka is in a much more comfortable position at the top than she was in 2023 – when her lead was just 630 points.
And, no matter what Swiatek does, the Belarusian can guarantee she stays at world No 1 by winning all three group stage matches.
Doing so would put Sabalenka on 9,616 ranking points, while Swiatek can finish the season on a maximum of 9,470 points – should she lift the title with a perfect group stage record.
For Swiatek, she has to win the title to have any chance; losing in the semi-final or falling in the group stage would not be enough.
If the Pole successfully defends her title without losing a match, she would usurp Sabalenka as the world No 1 should the Belarusian win one or two group stage matches, and then fail to make the final.
Should Swiatek lift the title following a 2-1 group stage record, she would hold 9,270 points.
For that to be enough for her to return to world No 1, she would need Sabalenka to win no more than one group stage match, and fail to make the final.
If Swiatek won the title after winning just one of her group stage matches, she would need Sabalenka to lose all three of her pool matches and therefore fail to progress any further.
Group stage opponents
A key factor in how both women will fare in this tournament is who they will face in their round robin matches.
And it is fair to argue that both women will likely be happy with their draws in Riyadh.
Sabalenka has been drawn in the same group as Jasmine Paolini, Elena Rybakina, and Zheng Qinwen, the latter of whom will be her first opponent on Saturday.
With a combined 12-5 record against her three prospective opponents, she is certainly the favourite for all her opening matches.
That gives her a further boost in the battle for No 1, though Swiatek herself has been handed a solid group.
She faces Coco Gauff – who she is 11-1 against – as well as Jessica Pegula and Barbora Krejcikova.
Pegula may be the biggest stumbling block, with the US star winning their US Open quarter-final, though she will certainly be a significant favourite to defeat both Gauff and Krejcikova.
