Carlos Alcaraz wins US Open title, Jannik Sinner & Novak Djokovic surge, key US star impresses – our ATP hard-court summer predictions
Wimbledon and the Olympics are done, and that means one thing: it’s time for the hard-court summer.
Crunch events in Canada and Cincinnati take centre stage over the next month before the final major of the year at the US Open – which promises to be an absolute cracker.
It’s been a fascinating year for the men’s game so far, with a new Grand Slam winner and world No 1, a successful ‘Channel Slam’, and a memorable Olympic final.
Ahead of action in North America, we make our predictions for the next month.
Alcaraz reigns in New York
Beating Carlos Alcaraz has become one of the toughest tasks in tennis – particularly over five sets.
And though he suffered a tough defeat in the Olympic final, there is no doubt he is a warm favourite to win the US Open title at the end of the summer.
Having won in 2022 and reached the semi-final last year, it is a tournament he plays well at, and he comes in off winning two consecutive major titles this year.
He has been playing the most confident tennis of his career, and it will be difficult to stop him.
Djokovic back to life
While we’re backing Alcaraz to win the US Open, we fully expect Novak Djokovic to use his Olympic momentum to his advantage and storm back into strong form.
After a rough start to 2024, the world No 2 has defied a meniscus injury to finish runner-up at Wimbledon and win his first title of the year at the Olympic Games.
That will give him huge confidence approaching his Cincinnati and US Open title defences, and will also re-build his aura, ending the perception that he is no longer as difficult to beat.
Expect Djokovic to be a significant factor wherever he plays.
ATP Tour News
Sinner bounces back from Paris disappointment
Life as world No 1 hasn’t been easy for Jannik Sinner, who was beaten in the Wimbledon quarter-final before being forced out of the Olympics.
That will likely make him even more motivated ahead of the summer, and he should be able to recapture his very best form.
The Italian has to be the favourite to defend his Canadian Open title, with the field weakened post-Games, and that should build up his confidence.
With comparatively fewer points to defend in Cincinnati and the US Open, he should be able to maintain his No 1 ranking and perform well – even if he doesn’t win a second Slam.
Paul leads US hopes
Tommy Paul has been one of the most improved players on the ATP in recent months, and he may be America’s leading male hope across the summer.
The world No 12 seems to thrive on all surfaces but has proven hugely successful on hard courts, reaching the last four of Indian Wells this spring, and in Canada a year ago.
Paul has made himself so tough to beat, and a deep US Open run would surprise no one.
Top-10 stars miss out again
Alcaraz, Sinner – and now Djokovic – have swept most of the big titles this year, with other potential contenders often missing out.
Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Andrey Rublev have all missed potential opportunities, with Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev the only two able to get consistently close to the ‘big three.’
However, expectations are not high for this group of players looking ahead, and it is difficult to see what impact they can make this summer.