Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul: Wimbledon quarter-final predictions

When the Wimbledon men’s singles draw was made, all eyes moved to one half of the draw.

That was the top half, where top seed Jannik Sinner and reigning SW19 champion Carlos Alcaraz were drawn into a potential semi-final clash – much like at Roland Garros.

The two have split the first two majors of 2024 and are a match away from another Grand Slam meeting, but both face crunch clashes that they could lose next.

Sinner takes on fifth seed Daniil Medvedev in an Australian Open final rematch, while Alcaraz faces 12th seed Tommy Paul in a battle of the past two Queen’s Club Championships.

Ahead of Tuesday, we make our quarter-final predictions.

(1) Jannik Sinner vs (5) Daniil Medvedev

Into a third straight Wimbledon quarter-final aged only 22, Sinner has largely justified why so many predicted him to win the title this fortnight.

The Italian wobbled early on against Yannick Hanfmann and Matteo Berrettini, but won both those in four sets – and was then in cruise control against Miomir Kecmanovic and Ben Shelton.

Medvedev, meanwhile, was dealt a slight stroke of luck with Grigor Dimitrov’s early retirement in the fourth round, but has gone deep at SW19 once again despite a previous apathy to grass.

Sinner and Medvedev were the beaten semi-finalists a year ago, and the fact they are back in the last eight is a testament to the improvements both have made on this surface.

With a penetrating serve and flat hitting, the world No 1 has a game that should thrive on the surface, and he has had the better of his recent clashes against the Russian.

Medvedev leads the head-to-head 6-5, but Sinner was 6-0 down in that rivalry – he has won their last five matches, starting with his win in Beijing – and including his Australian Open win from two sets down.

He has the momentum in this rivalry and, after impressive performances in rounds three and four, it’s close to impossible to pick against him.

Prediction: Jannik Sinner in straight sets

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(3) Carlos Alcaraz vs (12) Tommy Paul

Alcaraz is so often the heavy favourite in his matches, but that is not the case here.

Paul is one of the few players that the Spaniard has not repeatedly had the better of, and the American holds his own in their head-to-head: they have split their four encounters with two wins each.

And, in the form of his life, the 12th seed has found his very best on the grass this summer.

The 27-year-old comes into this contest on a nine-match win streak, winning the biggest title of his career at Queen’s before reaching just his second Grand Slam quarter-final.

Alcaraz has not convinced in his last two matches against 29th seed Frances Tiafoe and 16th seed Ugo Humbert, having to battle his way through both.

It is clear that Paul’s all-court consistency has also been an issue, and with the Spaniard a little up and down, he will not have an easy time in this encounter.

But the three-time Slam winner has by far the biggest peak of the two, and if he can maintain that for long enough, he should win.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in four sets

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