Queen’s or Halle? What Alcaraz and Sinner’s warm-up tournaments say about Wimbledon chances

The two favourites for the men’s Wimbledon title are competing in different warm-up tournaments, but out of Queen’s and Halle, one of them has proven to be far more likely to produce successful Wimbledon runs in recent years.
Having last met in the final of the French Open, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner began their grass-court seasons in different countries, with the Italian competing in the Terra Wortmann Open while Alcaraz is in the UK for the Queen’s Club Championships.
What are Queen’s and Halle?
Queen’s and Halle are two grass-court tournaments seen as the key warm-up matches before the summer’s Wimbledon Championships.
The Queen’s Club Championships have been going since 1886 and while originally a male-only tournament, it held its first women’s tournament this year.
It is held at the Queen’s Club in West Kensington, London, five miles away from the All England Lawn Tennis Club.
The Terra Wortmann Open, more commonly known as the Halle Open, meanwhile is held in Germany in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Queen’s first appeared on the Grand Prix tennis circuit before joining the ATP World Tour 500 series while Halle debuted in 1993 in the ATP World Series before joining the World Tour 500 series at the same time as the London venue.
Why are they important?
The reason Halle and Queen’s are notable on the calendar despite not being Slams are because they represent the final chance for the players to prepare for Wimbledon.
As Sinner and Alcaraz show, it is often players’ first games on grass following the clay court season, meaning they will use these tournaments to ensure they are fully acclimatised to the surface before the Slam.
What does history say about the tournaments?
Both events are billed as warm-up tournaments ahead of the Wimbledon Championships, which begin later this month, but how successful are they at producing winners? The answer to that is much more favourable for one competition than the other.
If we take into account the last 11 years of action (not including the COVID-cancelled 2020 season), we can start to get an idea of the patterns that emerge when looking at the two tournaments.
If we begin with Halle, since 2012 the winner of the German tournament has gone on to win at Wimbledon on just one occasion.
This particular incident came in 2017 when Roger Federer defeated Alexander Zverev 6–1, 6–3 in the German final before triumphing on Centre Court with a straight-sets victory over Marin Čilić.
However, Federer – who won Halle a record 10 times – is also proof of the poor Wimbledon fortune that can come after it.
Having won the German tournament in 2013, the Swiss proceeded to go out in the second round of Wimbledon. The next two seasons he again won Halle but was a losing Wimbledon finalist on each occasion.
Away from Federer, others have also found it hard going. Of the last 11 Halle champions, four have exited Wimbledon at the first round and only Federer, Alexander Bublik and Sinner in 2014 have made it past the second round.
Sinner won the tournament last year but was defeated at Wimbledon by Daniil Medvedev.
As for Queen’s, that has a much stronger record in recent years.
While Tommy Paul reached the quarters last year, Alcaraz won both Queen’s and Wimbledon in 2023, becoming the first man to do that since Andy Murray in 2016.
Matteo Berrettini won Queen’s in 2022 and 2021 and while he was forced to withdraw from the 2022 Wimbledon Championships due to COVID, he made the final the season before.
As for first-round knockouts, just one of the past 11 Queen’s winners have left at the earliest stage in Wimbledon with that being Feliciano Lopez who retired.
Murray’s success at Queen’s has also pushed him to success in Wimbledon, reaching the quarters in 2013, the semis in 2015 before winning the title in 2016.
What do the numbers say?
Figures from the last 11 tournaments
Halle
Wimbledon winners: One (Federer 2017)
Finalists: Three
Semi-finalists: Zero
Quarter-finals: One
Fourth round: One
Third round: None
Second round: One
First Round: Four
Queen’s
Wimbledon winners: Two (Alcaraz 2023, Murray 2016)
Finalists: One
Semi-finalists: One
Quarter-finals: Two
Fourth round: Zero
Third round: One
Second round: Two
First Round: One
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But if you truly wanted to follow the numbers, the best warm-up tournament may well be none at all.
Novak Djokovic has often broken the mould when it comes to tennis traditions and as a winner of the 2022, 2021, 2019, 2015 and 2014 Wimbledon Championships, he warmed up for the tournament by putting his feet up.
In each of those seasons, Djojovic went straight from the clay of the French Open to the grass of Wimbledon and proved not to need any transition period.
The two exceptions to this rule came in his 2018 triumph when he played at Queen’s, losing in the final to Marin Čilić. He featured again in 2011, losing in the third round before winning the Wimbledon title.
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