Tennis betting preview: Improving 20/1 shot Tommy Paul can be King of New York

Shahida Jacobs
Tommy Paul is in the Queen's Club final.
Tommy Paul is into the final at the Queen's Club.

It all went pear-shaped last week as both our tennis betting tips fell at the first hurdle. To say I was raging was an understatement. As legendary poker player and hell-raiser Stuey Ungar once said ‘Show me a good loser and I’ll just show you a loser’.

The only sure thing about luck though is it will change, so let us roll the dice once more this week as the ATP rocks up in Rotterdam, New York and Buenos Aires.

Players who’ve got a pinger of a serve usually do alright in Rotterdam. Previous winners include Max Mirnyi, Robin Soderling and Tomas Berdych. However, the courts are low-bouncing but not lightening fast so players with a bit less power and more guile and finesse have also done well.

A year ago in the Netherlands Gael Monfils was inspired all week, eventually beating Stan Wawrinka 6-3 1-6 6-2 to win his eighth ATP title. And let’s not forget Rotterdam was the venue one Andy Murray won his first ever ATP 500 title way back in 2009.

Daniil Medvedev is the 3/1 favourite, but he’s yet to scale the heights he did in the second half of last season and was in truth fairly disappointing at the Australian Open. The Russian did make the semis here last season, eventually losing a cracker to Monfils (they are both drawn in the top half this week and Monfils should be confident after taking down Montpellier on Sunday).

Daniil Medvedev at Shanghai Masters

Stefanos Tsitsipas is another at the head of the betting but I’m not sure this type of terrain is ideal for his game. David Goffin is also involved and he has some previous here. The Belgian of course suffered a nasty blow to his eye after a freak accident at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament a few year ago, but that incident aside tends to enjoy himself here.

Goffin fell just short of making it all the way in Rotterdam in 2017 as he ended runner-up at the tournament. Back then, Jo Wilfried Tsonga came from a set down to claim the title. He has started this season quite brightly and has an indoor title to his name too having won Metz back in 2014. With this in mind he could be worth a punt at 8/1 this week.

Over in the US the New York Open looks wide open. Reilly Opelka was a surprise winner last season and he’s back to defend his title this week. However he’s yet to win a match in 2020 so the world number 38 looks one to swerve.

John Isner loves it on hard courts and has won 15 titles in a solid career, the last of which came in Newport last season. Big John is a two-time semi-finalist at the event but at 34 his peak years seem to be behind him now and he looks short enough at 5/1.

One player to keep an eye on this season is Tommy Paul. One year ago, the North Carolina native was sitting outside the Top 200 but he enjoyed a fabulous 2019 and has started this year well.

Tommy Paul in action

He made a semi-final appearance in Adelaide and enjoyed his best ever Grand Slam result at the Australian Open, beating Grigor Dimitrov in a classic over five sets in Melbourne during a run to round three. Paul was a standout junior and looks set for another big season. He’s got a decent draw in New York and odds of 20/1 look tempting.

Finally the Argentina Open at the Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis Club has attracted another decent field but top seed Diego Schwartzman could be jaded after his extended run at the Cordoba Open.

Schwartzman is a warm order in the betting at 100/30 and will have strong local support but that’s not a price I would be taking until we have an idea about what sort of shape he’s in. With Schwartzman and Cristian Garin likely to dominate the top half of the draw, the value could come from the bottom half.

Juan Ignacio Londero is in this section and looks interesting at 17/1. Londero is at a career-high No. 50 in the world and at 26 is coming into his prime. The courts in the Argentine capital typically play very slow and this will suit Londero, who is a great returner who moves well.

Juan Ignacio Londero serving

He was a shock winner in Cordoba last season so knows what it feels like to win in South America. If he can get past second seed Guido Pella he would have an outstanding chance of at least reaching the final so 17/1 looks more than fair, even if punters attack it from an each-way perspective.

Bilko’s Banker: David Goffin to win the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament at 8/1 (Paddy Power)
Best of the Rest #1: Tommy Paul to win the New York Open at 20/1 (888 Sport)
Best of the Rest #2: Juan Ignacio Londero (each-way) to win the Argentina Open at 17/1 (888 Sport)

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Derek Bilton

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