WTA world No 1 race: Iga Swiatek leads Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff’s chance gone
The Australian Open is hotting up – with the three leading women’s singles contenders all making the quarter-finals.
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka, second seed Iga Swiatek, and third seed Coco Gauff have all cruised through to the last eight, with just one set dropped between them.
However, it is not just the title that is up for grabs.
The world No 1 ranking was on the line heading into the tournament, with incumbent Sabalenka looking to hold off her rivals.
Ahead of the last eight, we look at the rankings scenarios for all three.
Gauff out
Gauff is yet to be world No 1 in singles and, while she had a chance heading into the tournament, her hopes were slim.
The American needed to win the title to move to 8,108 points, and hope that Sabalenka fell before the semi-final, and Swiatek fell before the third round.
With Swiatek now through to the quarter-finals and provisionally on 8,420 points, it is impossible for the current world No 3 to hold the top spot next Monday.
However, Gauff could still end the tournament as the world No 2 should results go her way.
She would need to win the title and hope that Anastasia Pavyluchenkova beats Sabalenka in their quarter-final on Tuesday.
Should Sabalenka return to the semi-finals, she would move to 8,436 points in the live rankings – and ensure Gauff remains as the world No 3 no matter what happens across the rest of the event.
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Swiatek’s advantage over Sabalenka
As it stands, Swiatek sits on 8,420 in the WTA Live Rankings, while Sabalenka sits on 8,086 points.
For world No 2 Swiatek, that is already an improvement on her previous tally – having lost in the third round in 2024.
However, as the defending champion, Sabalenka can only match her pre-tournament tally of 9,656 points and would drop 1,570 points should she lose in the quarter-finals.
The Belarusian needs to reach the semi-final to keep herself in the fight to try and maintain her ranking, though that wouldn’t necessarily mean ‘job done’ for her.
Should Swiatek reach the semi-final, Sabalenka would need to reach the final.
And, should the Pole then reach the final, the reigning champion would need to win the title for a third straight year.
That means that should the final be between the top two seeds, the winner would claim both the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Trophy and then the world No 1 ranking on Monday.
Potential pathways
Sabalenka and Swiatek have both been hugely impressive in Melbourne, with neither of the two yet to drop a set.
And both are heavy favourites for their respective Australian Open quarter-finals.
World No 1 Sabalenka will be the first of the two to take to court at this stage, facing 27th seed Pavlyuchenkova on Tuesday’s night session.
Sabalenka is 2-1 down in the head-to-head, though the pair have not met since the 2021 French Open – when the Belarusian was not the force she now is.
Should Sabalenka beat Pavlyuchenkova, she would then face third seed Gauff or 11th seed Paula Badosa in the last four.
Meanwhile, Swiatek has been the form player of the tournament, dropping just 11 games to reach only her second quarter-final Down Under.
The Pole will be a warm favourite against eighth seed Emma Navarro, who has been pushed to three sets in all four of her matches to date.
If Swiatek were to win that quarter-final, she would then face 19th seed Madison Keys or 28th seed Elina Svitolina in the semi-final.
