Aryna Sabalenka lifts maiden US Open title as Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff falter – our predictions

Oli Dickson Jefford 23 Aug 2024 11:12 AM

(L-R) Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek

Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, and Iga Swiatek star in our US Open predictions

The US Open is just days away – and the women’s singles draw looks set to be as fascinating as ever.

Ahead of action at Flushing Meadows, we make our predictions for what could happen in New York.

Sabalenka to lift title

A year ago, Aryna Sabalenka was beaten in a three-set final by Coco Gauff – but we think she will go one better this year.

It was a difficult summer for the Belarusian up until the Cincinnati Open, but victory there has sent her back to world No 2 and has made her the woman to beat in New York.

Sabalenka loves hard courts and has reached at least the semi-final in her last three showings at Flushing Meadows, highlighting her pedigree at this tournament.

The two-time Australian Open is also the most consistent Slam performer in the women’s game in recent seasons, reaching at least the quarter-final of the last seven majors she has played.

She is a formidable force at Slams, and we don’t think anyone stops her.

Gauff to falter in title defence

Gauff approached last year’s US Open in scintillating form and built on that to battle her way to a memorable maiden major victory in front of a raucous crowd inside the Arthur Ashe Stadium.

However, her form has not been promising coming into her title defence, with early losses at Wimbledon, the Olympics, the Canadian Open, and the Cincinnati Open.

The American is struggling with confidence and does not have an easy draw that she can work her way into in New York.

Gauff could face 27th seed Elina Svitolina in round three, 13th seed Emma Navarro in round four – the same stage her compatriot beat her at Wimbledon – and then eighth seed Barbora Krejcikova in the last eight.

The signs are not promising, and a title defence looks unlikely.

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What about Swiatek?

The US Open is a special Slam for world No 1 Iga Swiatek, with this being the only major she has won outside of the French Open.

However, outside of Paris, the Pole has not reached the semi-final of a Slam since her victory here two years ago.

Swiatek has a promising draw early on, with 21st seed Mirra Andreeva – who pushed her hard in Cincinnati – a first potential stumbling block in round four.

Danger lurks after that though, with sixth seed Jessica Pegula her projected quarter-final opponent, and fourth seed Elena Rybakina potentially in the last four.

With Danielle Collins, Jasmine Paolini, Naomi Osaka, and Jelena Ostapenko all present in the top half, we think the world No 1 will miss out on reaching the final.

Now or never for Pegula

World No 6 and home favourite Pegula comes in as one of the form players of the hard court summer, having won in Toronto and reached the final in Cincinnati.

The American is certainly in the conversation as a title contender, though Grand Slams have not been a happy hunting ground for her; she is 0-6 in major quarter-finals.

Pegula’s draw is not particularly easy, with Sofia Kenin or Emma Raducanu in round two, 31st seed Katie Boulter in round three, and 11th seed Collins in round four – before a hypothetical Swiatek showdown.

However, she is playing with form and confidence – and can win all those matches.

Winning the title might be a stretch, but we would not be surprised if she reached the final.