Emma Raducanu vs Elena Rybakina – tactical analysis of US Open third round clash

Emma Raducanu will return to a familiar court and time slot when she takes on No 9 seed Elena Rybakina in the third round of the US Open on Friday, as it has been confirmed that he she will be back on Louis Armstrong Stadium court, where she has played her first two rounds at this year’s US Open.

The 2021 US Open champion has beaten Ena Shibahara and Janice Tjen in emphatic fashion in her first two matches, with those two qualifiers dispatched in one-sided contests that last for two hours and two minutes in total.

Now Raducanu is preparing for the biggest test of her US Open campaign so far, as she is preparing to take on one of the form players on the women’s tour, who came into this year’s US Open on the back of an impressive run at the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati that included a comprehensive win against world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka.

Kevin Palmer, Tennis365’s in-house LTA-qualified tennis coach, has cast his eye over this contest and picked out the key factors that will decide the outcome.

THE KEY SHOT FOR RADUCANU

More Tennis News

Emma Raducanu gives her verdict on Carlos Alcaraz’s new US Open haircut

Andy Roddick makes big claim as Emma Raducanu marches on at the US Open

The most impressive aspect of Raducanu’s first two performances at the US Open was the serve and if she can maintain her impressive standards, she will have a chance to beat Rybakina.

Raducanu hit 79 per-cent of her first serves in place against Tjen, with the potency and positioning of her serve adding to its potency.

One of the major flaws in Raducanu’s game plan since her US Open win four years ago has been her serve, with opponents picking on her second serve especially to undermine her ambitions.

She made improvements to the action when Mark Petchey came onto her team as a part-time coach at the Miami Open in March and now she appears to have taken that shot to the next level with new coach Francisco Roig.

“I thought that I served very well, and yeah, I put quite a few aces on the board today,” said Raducanu as she reflected on her serving success against Tjen. “It always helps me when I’m serving well. It just kind of seeps into the rest of my game.

“I have been practicing a lot. After my last match, I went onto the courts for another hour, and then two hours the first day off and just an hour yesterday.

If she can keep her first serve percentage above 75 per-cent against Rybakina, it will give her a chance to hold serve and possibly attack Rybakina’s serve, which was not at it’s best in her last match against impressive teenager Tereza Valentova.

Rybakina’s first serve percentage in that match was at 53 per-cent and she won only 44 per-cent of her second serve points.

Raducanu will look to attack Rybakina’s second serve so her percentages will be crucial.

THE KEY SHOTS FOR RYBAKINA

Raducanu has been rocked onto the back foot by the game’s big-hitters over the last couple of years and that scenario could play out again against Rybakina.

The former Wimbledon champion tends to rock her opponents onto the back foot with her thumping ground shots from the back of the court and Raducanu will need to try and get her off balance to dilute some of the power coming at her.

If Rybakina gets on top of an opponent, she can take the racket out of their hand, so Raducanu needs to use her variety to avoid that scenario.

VERDICT

This match is too close to call and that says much about the improvement in Raducanu’s game and physical conditioning in recent months.

She has proved she is now playing a level that can test the best in the game and that confidence is helping her to go into matches like this with new belief.

If Raducanu’s serve is firing, she will have a chance to get at Rybakina and record what would be her biggest win since that iconic US Open triumph four years ago.

Rybakina may be the favourite, but she can get flustered when she is taken out of her comfort zone and if Raducanu can do that, she can book her place in the last-16 in New York.

READ NEXT: Emma Raducanu reveals big message given to her by new coach Francisco Roig