Taylor Fritz: Why US No 1 has dominated rivalry against Frances Tiafoe – and is US Open semi-final favourite
For the first time in 5,544 days, an American man will play in a Grand Slam singles final on Sunday.
It has been 15 years since Andy Roddick contested the 2009 Wimbledon final and, after an extraordinary wait, one of Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will break that 15-year run at the US Open.
Fritz and Tiafoe face off in the first all-American men’s Grand Slam semi-final in 19 years, and it is a huge opportunity for both.
US No 1 Fritz had never reached a major semi-final before this tournament, losing his first four Grand Slam quarter-finals, while this is just the second Slam semi-final for Tiafoe.
On paper, this could be a blockbuster encounter and one that could breathe new life into US men’s tennis.
However, history suggests that Fritz – the 12th seed in New York – should go in as a warm favourite.
Dominant head-to-head
The pair have met seven times across seven years, and the head-to-head makes for strong reading if you are a Fritz fan.
Tiafoe won their first match at Indian Wells in 2016, prevailing in three sets when both were still teenagers, but has since lost six matches in a row to his compatriot.
It hasn’t necessarily been smooth sailing for Fritz, with two of his victories coming in three sets, and another being won in two tiebreaks.
But it is obvious this match-up between the two favours the 26-year-old from California.
Why is that the case?
There could be several answers to this question, but the main one is quite simple: Fritz’s serving is much more effective than Tiafoe’s returning.
The ATP Tour’s serve rating – which factors in first serve percentage, first and second serve points won, and service games won, among other stats – ranks Fritz as the fourth-best server across the past 52 weeks.
He has an overall serve rating of 295.7, a number only beaten by Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, and Hubert Hurkacz; for context, Tiafoe sits in 31st position.
In contrast to Fritz’s serving success, returning is not Tiafoe’s strength.
The Washington D.C native, factoring in first and second serve points won and return games won, sits down in 59th place on tour with his return rating.
That places Tiafoe among the lowest players inside the top 50 in the ATP World Rankings and also puts him short of Fritz, who sits in a respectable 24th place.
This is the issue for Tiafoe, a three-time ATP Tour titleist, heading into this semi-final: what can he do on his opponent’s serve?
Fritz was broken infrequently across his two matches against Casper Ruud and Zverev – two players currently inside the world’s top ten – and his serve gives him a huge advantage.
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How does Tiafoe turn the tables?
Matches aren’t won with statistics, they are won on court – and that is why the lower-ranked of the two still has more than a fighting chance coming into this semi-final.
One thing Tiafoe has in his favour is experience.
Two years ago, he reached his first Grand Slam semi-final at the US Open and was not too far off defeating eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz – falling in five sets to the Spaniard.
He has reached three straight quarter-finals in New York and, in a summer that has seen him reach the last four of the Washington Open and the Cincinnati Open final, has plenty of momentum behind him.
In an all-US clash, it is hard to predict accurately who the crowd may lean towards – but you sense the crowd may be slightly behind Tiafoe in this encounter.
The 20th seed seemed to have more crowd support than Ben Shelton when they met in the third round, having played more regularly on the court than his next opponent, they could be on his side again.
Fritz is still the favourite for this match – but maybe this match is closer to call than it would seem.
