ATP Rankings race for No 1: How Novak Djokovic or Daniil Medvedev can knock Carlos Alcaraz off top spot

Shahida Jacobs 02 Jul 2023 1:15 PM

Carlos Alcaraz in action

Carlos Alcaraz heads into Wimbledon with a slender lead over Novak Djokovic in the ATP Rankings while Daniil Medvedev has an outside chance of returning to No 1 in the world.

Reigning US Open champion Alcaraz returned to the top on Monday on the back of winning the Queen’s Club Championships – his maiden title on grass – and as a result, he earned the top seed status for Wimbledon, thus ensuring he will stay top over the fortnight.

The Spaniard is currently in his fourth spell at No 1 and is on 26 weeks, which puts him 16th in the list of most weeks spent at the top and he still has some way to go to move up as Ilie Năstase in 15th is on 40 weeks with Andy Murray on 41 weeks.

Djokovic, meanwhile, has had nine different stints at No 1 and holds the record for most weeks at the top with 389 weeks while Medvedev has spent 16 weeks at No 1.

However, of immediate concern for Alcaraz will be Wimbledon and keeping the chasing duo of Djokovic and Medvedev at bay.

Current ATP Rankings

Alcaraz heads to SW19 with 7,675 points to his name while Djokovic is on 7,595 points and Medvedev well adrift in third place on 5,890 points.

Players won’t drop any points at Wimbledon this year as no points were awarded last year following the ATP Tour’s decision to strip the tournament of ranking points on the back of the decision to ban Russian and Belarusian players.

It means Alcaraz will keep an 80-point lead over Djokovic while he is 1,785 points clear of Medvedev in third.

How Djokovic Can Beat Alcaraz To No 1

Djokovic will need to reach at least the third round – where 90 points are on offer – to have any chance of returning to No 1 as he would only get 10 points for a first-round appearance or 45 points for reaching the second round.

Should Djokovic then lose in the third round coupled with a shock Alcaraz defeat in the first round they would be level on points as the Spaniard would get 10 points, but the Serbian would win the tie-breaker at return to No 1.

The permutations get interesting after the round of 32 as Alcaraz will stay at No 1 as long as he mirrors or betters Djokovic’s result.

However, if the Spaniard loses from the round of 16 onwards, Djokovic only then needs to go one better in order to recapture the No 1 ranking.

Example: If Alcaraz loses in the fourth round (180 points) and Djokovic reaches the quarter-final (360 points) then the Serbian would make up the 80-point difference.

And that would be the case for the remainder of the tournament.

How Medvedev Can Beat Alcaraz And Djokovic To No 1

The equation is pretty simple for Medvedev as he needs to win the title to have any hope of returning to No 1 for a third spell. And yet it is still not in his hands as once Alcaraz and Djokovic reach the quarter-final then he will no longer be able to take over top spot in the ATP Rankings.