Why Emma Raducanu is just a few wins away from a dramatic rankings leap

Kevin Palmer
Emma Raducanu proved the key player for Britain in the Billie Jean King Cup
Emma Raducanu looks on during a match

Emma Raducanu’s eagerness to play top-level WTA Tour events has been questioned as she looks to return to the top of the game, but her open win in Stuttgart was evidence of why her tournament plan could reap quick-fire rewards.

Raducanu claimed an emphatic 6-2 6-1 win over former two-time champion Angelique Kerber in the last 32 of the Porsche Grand Prix in Stuttgart.

The 2021 US Open champion then beat Linda Noskova 6-0 7-5 in Germany to set up a mouth-watering last-eight tie with world number one Iga Swiatek on Friday at the WTA 500 tournament.

Fresh from helping Great Britain reach the finals of the Billie Jean Cup at the weekend, Raducanu continued her promising form on clay by breezing past the home favourite.

Both Raducanu and Kerber were playing as wild cards in Stuttgart, with the Briton tumbling down the rankings after time out to undergo three surgeries, but now she is plotting a return to the top.

Raducanu climbed into the top 10 of the WTA Rankings in the year after her 2021 US Open win, but she slipped out of the top 300 of the rankings after her inactivity in the second half of 2023.

Now she is making strides back up the rankings and playing in WTA 500 events like this week’s tournament in Stuttgart will give her a chance to make a rapid leap towards the top.

HOW THE TENNIS RANKINGS WORK

There are four levels of tournaments – three on the WTA Tour, plus the Grand Slams.

The WTA Tour includes 250, 500 and 1000-level events -the categories denoting the number of rankings points awarded to the champion. Grand Slams award 2,000 points to the winner.

The rankings are calculated on a rolling 12-month basis, with ranking points dropping off precisely one year after they are collected.

So ranking points collected at last year’s WTA tournament in Stuttgart dropped off the ranking totals for players at the start of this week and they get a chance to reclaim or add to those points in this year’s tournament.

READ MORE: Emma Raducanu ‘can trust’ Nick Cavaday – but who is the coach behind her resurgence?

WHY RADUCANU COULD RISE QUICKLY

Raducanu has no ranking points on her tally from 2023 beyond this week, so every win she gets from this point forward until the end of this year will see her make big progress up the rankings.

As she is playing top tier tournaments with the help of wildcards, the former US Open champion has a real chance to get back into the top 100 of the WTA Rankings over the next few months.

Her win against Kerber on Wednesday saw the 21-year-old rise 51 places in the WTA live rankings, moving her up to No 252.

Then her last-16 victory against Noskova secured another big rankings boost, as she moved up to No 221 in the live rankings, marking a rise of 82 places this week.

If she continues her good form over the next few weeks, she could enjoy a rapid rankings rise even if she is only winning two or three matches in a tournament.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

Raducanu will need wild cards to get into the upcoming WTA 1000 events in Madrid and Rome and if she does play, there is a huge opportunity for rankings gains.

As Raducanu’s management company has a big role in deciding the wild cards for Madrid, she is almost certain to be offered a chance to play there and if she could get to the last-16, she would collect another 120 ranking points.

A similar run at the WTA 1000 event in Rome could see Raducanu leap up to around 150 in the rankings.

Then she has a chance to collect more ranking points at the French Open, if she gets into the main draw.

She is waiting to discover if she will need to play qualifying at Roland-Garros as she is the fifth alternate to get a main draw place, but there is a good chance enough players will pull out for her to sneak in.

A couple of wins in Paris would be worth 130 ranking points and a run to the last-16 would see her points total swell by 240 points.

Raducanu will then have opportunities to play in grass court tournaments at Nottingham, Birmingham and Eastbourne in Britain in June, with a wild card into Wimbledon guaranteed if she needs it from the All England Club.

THE BIG QUESTION

There is every reason to believe Raducanu could be back in the top 100 of the WTA Rankings by the end of Wimbledon if she maintains her current form and fitness levels.

She is clearly playing at the level of a player ranked in the top 40 in the world after her impressive wins against world No 23 Caroline Garcia and Diane Parry in the Billie Jean King Cup last weekend and she backed that up with another impressive display against Kerber.

Maintaining fitness will be key for Raducanu from this point forward as she is a player who has the ability to challenge anyone in the game when she is free from injury.

The methodology of the rankings means Raducanu is perfectly placed to enjoy a speedy rise up the rankings and she may only need 10-12 wins over the next couple of months to make that happen.

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