How many points will Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Emma Raducanu drop in March?
The month of March is another opportunity for players on the WTA Tour to earn a lot of points as the back-to-back Sunshine Double – the Indian Wells Open and Miami Open – are the two big tournaments on the calendar.
Of course, it also means players are dropping points from the corresponding two events from 2024 and some will be hit harder than others.
Iga Swiatek and Danielle Collins are two of the players who are defending more than 1,000 points over the next month, while Maria Sakkari is in real danger of slipping further down the rankings if her poor run of form continues.
Current WTA Rankings Top 20 (February 24 update)
1. Aryna Sabalenka – 9,076 points
2. Iga Swiatek – 7,985
3. Coco Gauff – 6,333
4. Jessica Pegula – 5,196
5. Madison Keys – 4,680
6. Jasmine Paolini – 4,518
7. Elena Rybakina – 4,328
8. Zheng Qinwen – 3,780
9. Mirra Andreeva – 3,720
10. Emma Navarro – 3,704
World No 1 Aryna Sabalenka is assured of remaining ahead of Iga Swiatek until after the Sunshine Double as her points buffer is big enough and that lead will likely only grow as the Pole is defending a lot more points.
Three-time Grand Slam winner Sabalenka had a poor hard-court swing last year as she lost in the fourth round in California (120) and third round in Florida (65), so she will drop only 185 points.
Swiatek, meanwhile, is defending 1,120 points as she is the defending champion in Indian Wells (1,000) and earned 120 points at the Miami Open. She will remain at No 2, even if she ends up winning both tournaments for a combined 2,000 points.
Unless someone enjoys an outstanding swing, Coco Gauff should be safe at No 3, irrespective of her results. The American had a run to the semi-final of the first event (390), lost in the fourth round of the second tournament so will drop 510 points.
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Jessica Pegula is dropping 225 points (Indian Wells 10 and Miami 215) while Madison Keys is defending 185 points (65 and 120).
Jasmine Paolini has slipped two places in recent weeks after she failed to defend her WTA Qatar Open crown and she will drop 120 points in Indian Wells and 65 in Miami.
Elena Rybakina missed the first leg of the Sunshine Double last year and then finished runner-up at the Miami Open so she is only defending 650 points while Zheng Qinwen will drop 65 points, Mirra Andreeva 10 and Paula Badosa 35 (she missed Indian Wells in 2024).
Points Dropping in March – WTA Top 10
1. Aryna Sabalenka – 185 points
2. Iga Swiatek – 7,985
3. Coco Gauff – 1,120
4. Jessica Pegula – 225
5. Madison Keys – 185
6. Jasmine Paolini – 120
7. Elena Rybakina – 650
8. Zheng Qinwen – 65
9. Mirra Andreeva – 10
10. Emma Navarro – 335
Selected Others
Danielle Collins, currently at No 14 on 2,823 points, won the Miami Open last year and reached the second round of the Indian Wells Open so 1,035 points are coming off.
World No 30 Sakkari lost the 2024 Indian Wells final against Swiatek (650) and reached the quarter-final in Miami (215) so she is defending a 865 points. The Greek is 2-5 in her last five tournaments.
There is an opportunity waving world No 55 Emma Raducanu as she only has 65 points to defend from Indian Wells after missing Miami last year while former world No 1 Naomi Osaka (No 57) will drop 130 points over the two events.
