WTA Rankings race for No 1: How Aryna Sabalenka can end Iga Swiatek’s reign at the top

Shahida Jacobs 02 Jul 2023 9:21 AM

Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek pre-match

Iga Swiatek will start her 66th week at No 1 in the WTA Rankings on Monday and Aryna Sabalenka is the only player who can knock her off top spot after Wimbledon.

Following her run to the semi-final of the Bad Homburg Open this week, Swiatek picked up 110 points to give herself a healthy buffer at the top of the rankings as she is 984 points clear of her closest rival ahead of the grass-court Grand Slam.

The Pole started her reign at No 1 on April 4, 2022 and the only time she was in danger of losing that spot was at Roland Garros last month when Sabalenka came within touching distance of ending her stay at the top.

However, Sabalenka lost in the semi-final in Paris and, with Swiatek going on to win a third title, the standings remained the same at the top of the WTA Rankings.

Sabalenka will get another chance at Wimbledon over the next fortnight, but she will once again face an uphill battle as there are only a couple of scenarios at play.

Current WTA Rankings

When the rankings are updated on Monday, Swiatek will move to 9,050 points while Sabalenka will be staying on 8,066 points in second place and defending Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina a distant third on 5,090 points and unable to displace the top two.

This year’s Wimbledon will of course once again be slightly different as players won’t drop any points after the tournament was stripped of ranking points by the WTA Tour last year following the decision to ban Russian and Belarusian players.

How Sabalenka Can Usurp Swiatek

Unfortunately for Sabalenka, she can only become No 1 for the first time in her career if she reaches the Wimbledon final or win the title.

A run to the semi-final of a Grand Slam is only worth 780 points and that won’t be good enough even if Swiatek loses in the first round.

Therefore she needs to reach at least the final to have any chance of knocking Swiatek off the top spot as she would earn 1,300 points just for making the showpiece match. However, in order for that to happen Swiatek would need to exit Wimbledon in the semi-final or earlier.

Of course, winning the title would be even better for Sabalenka as she would earn 2,000 points to go with the shiny trophy.

However, if Swiatek finishes runner-up then Sabalenka would remain No 2 as the Pole herself would pick up 1,200 points for appearing in the final and move to 10,350 points with the Belarusian on 10,066.