WTA Rankings world No 1 race: Iga Swiatek could face a long wait to replace Aryna Sabalenka at the top
The Middle East Swing had a big impact on the WTA Rankings battle between Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek despite the reigning world No 1’s poor showings.
Sabalenka won only one match across the WTA Tour’s two 1000 events while Swiatek reached the semi-final of the Qatar Open and the quarter-final of the Dubai Tennis Championships.
Despite those results, there was a big swing in the Belarusian’s favour as Swiatek failed to defend her points from the previous year as she was the defending champion in Doha and reached the semi-final in Dubai in 2024.
The three-time Grand Slam winner’s lead at the top of the rankings has grown to 1,091 points compared to the 186-point advantage she had over her Polish rival before the two tournaments.
More Bad News For Iga Swiatek
The Sunshine Double is up next with the Indian Wells Open starting 5 March while the Miami Open gets underway a fortnight later.
Things are not looking good for Swiatek in terms of replacing Sabalenka at the top due to the points they are both defending at the upcoming WTA 1000 events.
Remember, Swiatek already has to “make up” at least 1,091 points if she wants to regain the No 1 position and hope that Sabalenka lose early at both events.
But the Pole’s task is impossible as she will drop 1,120 points across the two tournaments as she won the Indian Wells Open (1,000) last year and reached the fourth round in Miami (120).
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Sabalenka, meanwhile, lost in the fourth round (120) in California and followed it up with a third-round exit (65) in Florida so Swiatek has a 2,211-point deficit once points drop off.
With only 2,000 points on offer, Sabalenka will remain at No 1 after the Sunshine Double.
What About The Clay Swing?
Once again it is not looking good for Swiatek as she enjoyed an incredible run on the red dirt in 2024, winning the Madrid Open, Italian Open and Roland Garros while she also earned 195 points in Stuttgart.
That is worth 4,195 points while Sabalenka will drop only 1,838 points across the four tournaments.
What About Coco Gauff?
American Gauff is currently third in the WTA Rankings, 2,743 points behind the top-ranked Sabalenka as she also had a poor run in the Middle East as she failed to win a single match.
Gauff is defending 510 points at the two Sunshine Double events and 1,398 during the clay-court swing so she is also looking at a massive deficit.
But winning a couple of the WTA 1000 events and a deep run at Roland Garros coupled with a poor couple of tournaments for Swiatek could see her return to No 2.
Verdict
Aryna Sabalenka will comfortably remain at the top of the WTA Rankings until the grass-court swing as Swiatek and Gauff have too much work to do in the next few months.
The chasing duo, though, will have a better chance when the grass-court season gets underway in June.
