ATP Indian Wells Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic stars on return to action

Ewan West 04 Mar 2026 7:00 AM

ATP stars Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner

Main draw action at the 2026 Indian Wells Open will get underway on Wednesday, but who will lift the men’s singles title in Tennis Paradise?

Jack Draper is the reigning champion, having defeated Holger Rune in the 2025 Indian Wells men’s singles championship match.

Rune is one of 10 men who has withdrawn from the ATP Masters 1000 tournament.

Here, we make our predictions for the Indian Wells men’s singles draw.

First quarter

Projected QF: Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs Alex de Minaur (6)

World No 1 Carlos Alcaraz holds a perfect 12-0 record in 2026 after he won the Australian Open and the Qatar Open.

The seven-time major champion enjoys the Indian Wells conditions, having secured the title in 2023 and 2024, and he could meet Arthur Rinderknech in the third round before a possible fourth round meeting with Casper Ruud.

Sixth seed Alex de Minaur and 10th seed Alexander Bublik could face Alcaraz in the quarter-finals.

Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz defeats de Minaur

Second quarter

Projected QF: Novak Djokovic (3) vs Taylor Fritz (7)

Novak Djokovic, who is seeded third, is playing his first event since losing to Alcaraz in the Australian Open final over a month ago.

The 38-year-old legend secured the last of his five Indian Wells crowns in 2016, and he could play Corentin Moutet in the third round before a potential last 16 blockbuster with 14th seed and defending champion Draper.

Djokovic’s possible quarter-final opponents include Taylor Fritz, who won Indian Wells in 2022, and two-time runner-up Daniil Medvedev, whose participation is uncertain after he was unable to travel from Dubai on a flight.

Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic defeats Fritz

ATP Tour News

Tim Henman suggests Carlos Alcaraz & Jannik Sinner’s dominance could become ‘unappealing’

Indian Wells Open: Medvedev and Rublev in ‘tough’ situation amid ‘awful’ options to flee Dubai

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Third quarter

Projected QF: Alexander Zverev (4) vs Lorenzo Musetti (5)

World No 4 Alexander Zverev fell in the second round at the Mexican Open in his only event since his epic Australian Open semi-final loss to Alcaraz.

The German could play Matteo Berrettini in his first match and Brandon Nakashima in the third round before a potentially intriguing fourth round clash with Flavio Cobolli or Frances Tiafoe.

Fifth seed Lorenzo Musetti has not played since a leg injury ended his Australian Open campaign when he was leading in his quarter-final match with Djokovic.

The Italian could be set for a third round encounter with the dangerous 30th seed Arthur Fils — who has impressed since returning to the tour last month from a back injury.

Either Felix Auger-Aliassime or Andrey Rublev — whose presence is not guaranteed — could await Musetti or Fils in the last 16.

Quarter-final prediction: Zverev defeats Fils

Fourth quarter

Projected QF: Jannik Sinner (2) vs Ben Shelton (8)

Second seed Jannik Sinner is looking to reach his first final of 2026 after a semi-final exit at the Australian Open and a quarter-final loss in Doha.

The four-time Slam champion could play Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the third round before a possible last 16 clash with Karen Khachanov (whose participation is in doubt) or Tommy Paul.

No 8 seed Ben Shelton is projected to face Sinner in the quarter-finals, but the American may need to navigate tricky matchups with Learner Tien in the third round and Jakub Mensik in the fourth round.

Quarter-final prediction: Sinner defeats Shelton