Why Elena Rybakina could be primed for world No 1 battle after stunning Australian Open triumph
Elena Rybakina was always far too good to be a one-time Grand Slam champion — and her stunning Australian Open triumph has now cemented her place as one of the leading WTA stars of her era.
Almost four years after winning Wimbledon in 2022, Rybakina battled back from 3-0 down in the final set to seal a thrilling 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 triumph over world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka, gaining revenge for her loss to the Belarusian in the 2023 Australian Open final.
This was Rybakina’s first Grand Slam final since that loss to Sabalenka three years ago and, after difficult patches in 2024 and 2025, the Kazakh’s triumphs at the WTA Finals and the Australian Open — within a matter of months — cement her place towards the top of the women’s game.
Victory in Melbourne will propel the 26-year-old back up to her career-high of world No 3 in the WTA Rankings on Monday — but could she potentially challenge for world No 1 in 2026?
Rybakina’s opportunity
Rybakina’s resurgence is remarkable, particularly considering that she was ranked out of the top 10 ahead of the Canadian Open last July.
Her run to the semi-final at that event saw her return to the top 10 and, after slowly climbing back since then, is now back at the career-high ranking that she first reached back in 2023.
Back then, Rybakina was often placed in a ‘Big 3’ alongside Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, but while both those women pushed on to achieve further Grand Slam success, the Kazakh stagnated at times.
However, those three women will be back at the top of the WTA Rankings come Monday, and there is a sense that the 26-year-old could now push on further.
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On Monday, Rybakina will hold 7,610 points, with world No 2 Swiatek on 7,978 points, and No 1 Sabalenka further ahead on 10,990 points.
Can she do it?
The Kazakh will now hold 2,000 Australian Open ranking points until next January, while her 1,500 points from winning the WTA Finals in Riyadh will remain on her ranking until November.
That gives her a significant chunk of points to hold onto over the next few months, and she does not have a massive amount of points to defend at the WTA’s biggest events.
She has just 240 ranking points to defend at both the French Open and US Open, losing in the fourth round of both events in 2025, while she will have just 130 points to defend at Wimbledon after a round-three exit last summer.
In contrast, Sabalenka has 1,300 points to defend at the French Open, 780 points to defend at Wimbledon, and a full 2,000 points to defend at the US Open as the reigning champion.
Meanwhile, Swiatek has a full 2,000 points to defend at Wimbledon as the 2025 champion, with 780 semi-final points at the French Open and 430 US Open quarter-finalist points to defend.
The Pole also has a WTA 1000 title to defend in Cincinnati, while Sabalenka has WTA 1000 crowns to defend in Miami and Madrid; Rybakina did not reach a single WTA 1000 final in 2025.
Rybakina has by far and away fewer points to defend than both Sabalenka and Swiatek across the biggest events in the game — and, having beaten both women in Melbourne, is clearly playing well enough to match them once again.
She will be just 368 ranking points behind Swiatek on Monday, meaning that a move to a career-high of second is more than possible in the next few weeks — especially if she performs well in the Middle East swing.
And, now playing arguably the best tennis of her career, Rybakina may well be eying up the very peak of the mountain top.
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