Rybakina’s No 1 hopes dented by Zheng as Sabalenka, Pegula, Gauff up the pressure – our US Open quarter-final predictions

Shahida Jacobs 08 Sep 2026 11:45 AM

Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff

We have reached the business end of the 2026 US Open with the top six in the WTA Rankings all reaching the quarter-finals, and they are joined by Emma Navarro and giant-slayer Zheng Qinwen.

The top six seeds of Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Mirra Andreeva and Linda Noskova will feature in the last eight at Flushing Meadows alongside 26th seed Navarro and qualifier Zheng.

Besides the US Open title being on the line, there is also the not-so-small matter of the No 1 spot in the rankings with Sabalenka, Rybakina, Pegula and Gauff all in the running. Rybakina has one hand on the title as she only needs to reach the semi-final to overtake Sabalenka while the other three need to win the title.

But let’s look at the four quarter-final match-ups with our predictions.

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v Linda Noskova (6)

The reigning US Open champion against the reigning Wimbledon champion for a place in the semi-final of the US Open.

Sabalenka has a 2-0 head-to-head win against Noskova and both of those victories have come on hard courts (Adelaide in 2023 and this year’s Indian Wells Open) with the Czech yet to win a set.

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Prediction: Sabalenka has been in imperious form at the US Open and she will continue her fine run again and keep her hopes of a three-peat at Flushing Meadows alive.

Jessica Pegula (3) v Emma Navarro (26)

This is another one-sided head-to-head with world No 3 Pegula leading the rivalry 4-0 with the most recent victory coming at the Cincinnati Open.

Pegula has been in form during the North American swing as she finished runner-up to Alex Eala at the Washington DC Open, reached the round of 16 in Toronto and lost the Cincinnati Open final against Coco Gauff.

Prediction: It is difficult to look past Pegula as she will keep her world No 1 hopes alive with a win over her fellow American.

Mirra Andreeva (5) v Coco Gauff (4)

The two rising stars will meet for a sixth time on the WTA Tour and Gauff has won all five previous encounters, but interestingly four of those matches have been on clay and only one on a hard court (2023 US Open).

I think we all know that Coco is a great fighter. So, I feel like not one point is going to be easy if I play her. So, you know, no matter what’s going to happen, the match is going to be tough.

Andreeva jokingly pulled a face when she was asked about Gauff in her press conference before stating: “I think she’s now also improving even more. You know, her serve is better.

“I feel like she tries to I was watching a little bit of how she was playing earlier in the tournament. I felt like she was trying to go into the net a little bit more, you know, trying to be more aggressive.”

Gauff is 14-1 during the hard-court swing so far while Andreeva is 7-2.

Prediction: Gauff to keep her unblemished record against Andreeva and also stay in the hunt to be No 1.

Zheng Qinwen (Q) v Elena Rybakina (2)

Rybakina was in brutal form against Naomi Osaka as she swiped the former world No 1 aside in straight sets and, much like the other quarter-final match-ups, it’s the higher-ranked player who has a dominant H2H record.

The Kazakh star leads 4-1, with their most recent meeting coming on the clay in Spain this year. Zheng’s win was at the 2024 WTA Finals.

But Zheng is on a roll at the US Open as she came through qualifying and has now taken out Grand Slam winners Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek.

Prediction: Zheng appears to have the momentum, and coming from 5-0 down in the opening set against Swiatek will give her a massive boost. Fatigue could set in as she has already played seven matches (three in qualifying) and three of her main draw matches went the distance.