Why Carlos Alcaraz could still extend rankings lead over Jannik Sinner despite his injury
Carlos Alcaraz was forced to pull out of the Shanghai Masters event after picking up an ankle injury en-route to his eighth tournament win of the year at the Japan Open, but he could still end the marquee event in China with an expanded lead over his big rival Jannik Sinner at the top of the rankings.
With Sinner defending champion in Shanghai, he cannot expand on his ranking points total from this week a year ago, while Alcaraz is only losing 200 ranking points after he slipped to a surprise defeat in the quarter-finals of the Chinese tournament against Tomas Machac last year.
Alcaraz holds a 1,380-point lead over Sinner in the live rankings after they both lifted ATP 500 titles this week, so the Italian cannot overhaul his big rival this week.
In fact, he may finish the tournament in Shanghai with a wider gap to make up on Alcaraz than he has now.
Sinner is just 590 points behind Alcaraz in the official rankings, but that gap will widen unless he defends the 1,000 ranking points he collected in Shanghai last year.
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Alcaraz’s absence from the Shanghai Masters means Sinner is the outstanding favourite to lift the trophy, but he has been struggling with stomach issues during his run to the title in Beijing and has looked vulnerable at times during that run.
If Sinner wins again in Shanghai, he will gain 200 ranking points on Alcaraz, but he may struggle to make up the additional points he needs unless the Spaniard misses tournaments due to injury, with that year-end world No 1 title one of the last big prizes up for grabs in tennis in 2025.
Sinner collected the ATP No 1 trophy in front of his adoring Italian fans last November and his emotions for that prize appeared to be as intense as they were for lifting a Grand Slam trophy.
“I just heard that my mom was crying, which is something very cute,” Sinner said after the presentation of his ATP No 1 trophy. “Only they know from my early age and stages, when I was around 13, how many sacrifices we made as a family.
“Now I’m standing here with one of the, maybe the most special trophy I have.
“It’s a great competition between this (year-end world No 1 title) and Grand Slams. This is a very consistent trophy. You have to play one year of very consistent tennis, so this is for sure a very, very tough trophy to get.”
Alcaraz could still have the option of playing at the ATP 500 tournaments in Basel or Vienna later this month before playing at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Paris and the ATP Finals in Turin.
With Sinner having so many points to defend, Alcaraz is the big favourite to finish 2025 as world No 1, but this story could still have a few twists and turns along the way.
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