What Novak Djokovic needs to do at the Paris Masters to qualify for ATP Finals?
Novak Djokovic faces an uphill battle to qualify for the ATP Tour Finals after losing to Jan-Lennard Struff at the Basel Open on Thursday.
Despite dropping the first set, Djokovic was unable to hold back the storm as Struff edged out a 6-7 (4), 7-5, 7-6 (5) victory to reach the quarter-finals of the ATP 500 event.
Struff snapped an eight-match losing streak to the 24-time major winner, with Djokovic full of praise for his opponent after their two-hour and 36-minute-long battle.
He told Sportal, “I think it’s just that in the decisive moments, when I had break points, many times in the second and also at the beginning of the third set, he played some incredible shots and incredible points.
“Maybe there were one or two points where I could have been more aggressive, but all credit goes to him.”
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After the loss, Djokovic turned his attention to next week’s Paris Masters, where the Serbian will need to score heavily if he wants to qualify for the season-ending event in Turin.
Heading into the business end of the ATP 500 events in Basel and Vienna, Djokovic currently sits 11th in the ATP Tour Race, with 2,890 points to his name.
At present, Rafael Jodar is in the last qualification spot on 3,184 points but his early Basel exit opens the door for the likes of Alex De Minaur and Taylor Fritz to overtake him.
At the time of writing, the ATP Finals qualification cut stands at 3,785 points. For now, there are still five spots available. Here are the current standings below.
Race to Turin
- Alexander Zverev – 9,240 points (Q)
- Jannik Sinner (injured) – 7,950 points
- Carlos Alcaraz – 4,700 points (Q)
- Ben Shelton – 4,520 points (Q)
- Daniil Medvedev – 3,710 points
- Flavio Cobolli – 3,680 points
- Arthur Fils – 3,525 points
- Frances Tiafoe – 3,380 points
- Rafael Jodar – 3,184 points
———————————– - Alex De Minaur – 2,930 points
- Novak Djokovic – 2,890 points
- Taylor Fritz – 2,785 points
- Tommy Paul – 2,725 points
What Novak Djokovic needs to do in Paris:
Quite simply, if Djokovic wins the Paris Masters, which starts on Monday, he will overtake Jodar in the Race, and that should be enough to secure his place at the ATP Finals.
Those 1,000 points would take him to 3,890 points, which puts him above the qualification cut-off. However, if De Minaur wins Vienna, that takes him to 3,330 points, and if he were to reach the final in Paris, that would catapult him to 3,930 points, just shading out Djokovic.
So even if Djokovic wins in Bercy, he may not qualify. If the likes of De Minaur, Fritz, and Tommy Paul don’t pick up any more points this week and lose in their Paris openers, the Serb will need to reach the semi-finals. That will pocket him 360 points, which would see him overhaul his 319-point deficit to Jodar.
So at the minimum, he needs a semi-final run, and at the maximum, he needs to win the title. However, Djokovic may need some of his rivals to slip up in the French capital.
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