ATP Rankings: Jack Draper set for big drop and here is why he faces an even bigger slide in coming months
Jack Draper will slip out of the top 20 of the ATP Rankings following his quarter-final exit from the Indian Wells Open and there is potentially an even bigger drop on the card in the next few months.
Barely 24 hours after pulling off one of the biggest wins of his career with a three-set defeat of Novak Djokovic, Draper’s title defence at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament was ended by Daniil Medvedev with the former world No 1 winning 6-1, 7-5.
The British No 1 started the tournament at No 14 in the rankings with 2,510 points as he had slipped out of the top 10 on the back of missing the second half of the 2025 season due to an arm injury.
But he was always going to face an uphill battle as he was defending 1,000 points from his title run 12 months ago so was effectively on 1,510 points.
By reaching the quarter-final, he managed to claw back 200 points and will he leave California with 1,710 points, which puts him at No 26 in the Live Rankings.
Why He Could Drop Even Further
Draper, of course, is still nursing his way back to full fitness following his injury struggles last year, as the Indian Wells Open was only his second tournament of the 2026 season, as he didn’t play at the Australian Open.
The good news for now is that he only has 10 points to defend at his next event, the Miami Open, so a decent run could see him return to the top 20.
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However, after that he has 100 points to defend at the Monte Carlo Masters, 650 at the Madrid Open, 200 at the Italian Open and 200 at Roland Garros. He also reached the semi-finals on the grass at Queen’s Club last year so will defend 200 points there.
Should Draper fail to make the latter stages of those events in 2026, he could drop further down the rankings.
All Is Not Lost
But that is where the bad news ends, as he has virtually no points to defend during the second half of the campaign, as he lost in the round of 64 at both Wimbledon and the US Open (100 points in total).
Those were his only two tournaments in the latter half of 2025 so he will have a free hit to make his way back up the rankings later in the year.
But of course, if he does slip out of the top 32 by Wimbledon, he will not be seeded and that could result in a tough draw.
