Australian Open: Carlos Alcaraz & Jannik Sinner’s predicted pathways to blockbuster showdown

Oli Dickson Jefford 15 Jan 2026 12:30 PM

Pictured L-R: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

ATP Tour stars Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

They have met in the final of the French Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open — and now all eyes are on whether Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner can complete the set at the upcoming Australian Open.

World No 1 Alcaraz and No 2 Sinner have dominated the men’s game in recent months and are undoubtedly the two heavy favourites to lift the title Down Under, with both men targeting history at the Australian Open this year.

Alcaraz will look to become just the sixth man in the Open Era to complete the Career Grand Slam, while Sinner could become just the second man in the Open Era to win three straight titles at the event.

Many will automatically predict a blockbuster showdown between the two in the championship match, but what paths will they have to navigate?

Here, we look at the projected pathways that Alcaraz and Sinner face in Melbourne after the men’s singles draw was made on Thursday.

Alcaraz’s projected path to final

Round 1: Alcaraz’s quest for a maiden Australian Open title will begin versus home favourite Adam Walton, the current world No 79. The Spaniard won his only previous meeting versus Walton at the Queen’s Club Championships last June.

Round 2: World No 101 Yannick Hanfmann is expected to be Alcaraz’s opponent in round two, with the German facing qualifier Zachary Svajda in the first round. Alcaraz has a 1-0 head-to-head lead over Hanfmann, though has never faced world No 143 Svajda before.

Round 3: The first seed, the Spaniard, is projected to take on his 32nd seed, Corentin Moutet, in what would be their first career meeting. Sebastian Korda is also a possible round three opponent for the world No 1.

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Round 4: Compatriot and 14th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is projected to face world No 1 Alcaraz in round four in Melbourne. 19th seed and former Australian Open semi-finalist Tommy Paul could also be a potential opponent at this stage for the top seed.

Quarter-final: Alcaraz’s projected quarter-final opponent is sixth seed Alex de Minaur, the man leading the home charge at this year’s Australian Open. In-form 10th seed Alexander Bublik is another potential danger for Alcaraz at this stage.

Semi-final: Landing in the same side of the draw as the world No 1 is world No 3 and third seed Alexander Zverev, the 2025 Australian Open runner-up. However, this is a busy quarter of the draw, and seventh seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, 11th seed Daniil Medvedev, and 13th seed Andrey Rublev could all realistically be Alcaraz’s hypothetical semi-final opponent.

Sinner’s projected path to final

Round 1: Riding a 14-match win streak in Melbourne, two-time defending champion Sinner kicks off his title defence against world No 94 Hugo Gaston. The pair have not met since 2021, though the Italian has not dropped a set versus Gaston in two previous meetings.

Round 2: Waiting in the second round for the second seed is lucky loser Dino Prizmic or home wildcard James Duckworth. Sinner has a 2-1 head-to-head lead versus Duckworth — though they have not met since 2021 — while he has never faced young gun Prizmic.

Round 3: Sinner could be set for a blockbuster round three encounter versus 28th seed Joao Fonseca, one of the hottest prospects in the men’s game. Should they meet, it would be their first career meeting.

Round 4: The reigning champion is projected to take on 15th seed Karen Khachanov in the fourth round, with the Russian a former semi-finalist at this event back in 2023. Compatriot and 22nd seed Luciano Darderi is also a potential opponent at this stage.

Quarter-final: Sinner is expected to take on eighth seed Ben Shelton in the quarter-final stage, twelve months on from the two meeting in the semi-final stage of the tournament. The Italian has a commanding 8-1 head-to-head lead over the American — and has won the last 19 sets they have contested.

Semi-final: Sinner is projected to take on fourth seed and 10-time champion Novak Djokovic in the semi-final, having convincingly beaten the Serbian in the last four of the French Open and Wimbledon last year. Fifth seed Lorenzo Musetti and ninth seed Taylor Fritz are among the other potential semi-final opponents for the world No 2.

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