Will worrying trend against top-10 players damage Iga Swiatek’s hopes of Australian Open glory?
Iga Swiatek is undeniably one of the greatest tennis players of her time and arguably the greatest of her era — and she has the chance to make history at the Australian Open in 2026.
After completing the ‘Surface Slam’ following her maiden Wimbledon triumph last July, Swiatek now has the chance to complete the Career Grand Slam in Melbourne, a feat not achieved by any WTA player since Maria Sharapova completed it at the 2012 French Open.
However, while she will enter as one of the favourites, will Swiatek‘s hopes of glory Down Under be affected by a notable — and in her case, concerning — trend when she takes on the very best players in the world?
Gauff losing streak
World No 3 Coco Gauff is by far and away the most-played opponent of Swiatek’s career, with the two having met a staggering 16 times — despite still only being in their early-to-mid twenties.
This head-to-head used to be emphatically in Swiatek’s favour, with the Pole holding an 11-1 advantage over Gauff, with all 11 of her wins coming in straight sets.
However, the tables have now well and truly turned.
The pair have met four times since November 2024 and, in all of those meetings, it has been Gauff picking up straight-set triumphs.
The American beat Swiatek in the round-robin stage of the 2024 WTA Finals, in the 2025 United Cup final, the 2025 Madrid Open semi-final, and the 2026 United Cup semi-final this past weekend.
All four of those wins have been convincing for Gauff, with the American not dropping more than four games in any of the last eight sets she has played since Swiatek.
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Those four matches have all come since Swiatek started playing more aggressively under the guidance of Wim Fissette, and this could play into the hands of Gauff, arguably the best athlete and counterpuncher on tour.
However, this trend extends — admittedly to a lesser extent — to other top-10 players. Swiatek has lost her:
- Last two matches vs world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka
- Last two matches vs world No 4 Amanda Anisimova
- Last one match vs world No 5 Elena Rybakina
- Last two matches vs world No 6 Jessica Pegula
- Last one match vs world No 7 Jasmine Paolini
- Last two matches vs world No 8 Mirra Andreeva
- Last one match vs world No 10 Belinda Bencic
The only current member of the top 10 (as of Monday, January 12) that she won her last meeting against was world No 9 Madison Keys.
Swiatek still leads a lot of head-to-heads against the players mentioned above, though there is no denying the trend that has begun to emerge.
Top-10 and top-5 dip
Adding to the stats below, there is also no denying that her overall record against top-10 and top-5 players has dropped in recent months.
Across her career in total, Swiatek has a 53-28 record against top-10 players on the WTA Tour, giving her an overall win percentage of 65.43% in such matches.
While that is still a very high win rate versus top-10 players overall, her record against such opponents has been heading in the wrong direction in recent months.
Since the start of the 2025 tennis season, Swiatek has a 9-9 record against top-10 opponents — a win percentage of 50% that is well down on her overall career percentage.
She has lost five of her last six matches against top-10-ranked opponents, and has a 5-8 record against top-10 opponents since the start of the 2025 clay swing last April.
While her 65.43% win rate is still high, it is notably down on the 69.33% record she had only last August, after her first 75 matches against top-10 stars.
Swiatek also has a negative record against top-5-ranked players in recent years, with a 3-8 record against such players since her 2024 French Open triumph.
Why could this be such a big issue?
Swiatek did not beat a top-10 player on her way to winning the Wimbledon title last summer, but the players she beat in the semi-final and final — Bencic and Anisimova — are both now in the top-10, and have now beaten her in their most recent encounters.
After a strong period of inconsistency and surprise finals on the WTA Tour, renewed consistency and dominance at the top mean that the last 16 Grand Slam women’s singles finals have had at least one top-10 star in them.
The last final without a top-10 player was the surprise 2021 US Open final between Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez.
Swiatek has a perfect 6-0 record in Grand Slam finals, but if she were to hypothetically face a top-10 player in the Australian Open final, her recent trajectory against such opponents would suggest that unblemished record could be under threat.
The Pole will be the second seed in Melbourne, and that will provide some layers of protection, though she will be projected to face one of Rybakina, Pegula, Paolini, or Andreeva in the quarter-final stage.
She will then have either world No 3 Gauff or world No 4 Anisimova as a projected semi-final opponent, before a hypothetical final against world No 1 Sabalenka.
Swiatek’s draw could potentially blow wide open and hand her a more fortuitous path towards the final, but she will likely have to face at least one top-10 star if she wants to reach the championship match.
History beckons for the 24-year-old in Melbourne, but it could prove to be an uphill task.
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