How Jannik Sinner’s Qatar Open loss affects hopes of catching world No 1 Carlos Alcaraz

Ewan West 20 Feb 2026 10:10 AM

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner’s campaign at the 2026 Qatar Open ended at the quarter-final stage, but how has the Italian’s shock exit affected his world No 1 chances?

The world No 2 fell 6-7(3), 6-2, 3-6 to 20-year-old Czech star Jakub Mensik in the last eight in Doha on Thursday night.

Sinner was making his debut at the ATP 500 in Qatar, and he defeated Tomas Machac and Alexei Popyrin prior to his defeat to the world No 16.

The 24-year-old entered the week with the opportunity to close the gap to Carlos Alcaraz at the top of the ATP Rankings.

This is because Sinner was not defending any points this week as he did not compete in the same week of the calendar in 2025 due to his ban for failing doping tests.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, was defending 100 points as he reached the quarter-finals in Doha last year.

At the start of the tournament, Sinner was on 10,300 points, while world No 1 Alcaraz was 2,850 ahead with a total of 13,150.

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Following his quarter-final exit, Sinner has 10,350 points in the Live ATP Rankings.

Alcaraz, who defeated Karen Khachanov to progress to the semi-finals on Thursday, now sits on 13,250 points.

Sinner is, therefore, currently 2,900 points adrift, and the gap could widen further if Alcaraz continues his run.

Alcaraz, who will play defending Doha champion Andrey Rublev in the semi-finals, will move onto 13,380 points if he advances to the final.

The Spaniard can jump to 13,550 points if he secures the ATP 500 title, which would extend his lead over Sinner to 3,200 points.

Why Sinner still has a chance to catch Alcaraz in the coming months

While Sinner’s Doha loss is a blow to his world No 1 hopes, he will still have an opportunity to hunt down Alcaraz in the next few months.

This is because the four-time Grand Slam champion is not defending any points until the Italian Open in May as he did not compete between 9 February and 4 May due to his aforementioned suspension. Therefore, any ranking points that Sinner collects before Rome will increase his tally.

There are four Masters 1000 tournaments before the Italian Open — Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo and Madrid — giving Sinner a big chance to earn points.

In contrast, Alcaraz is defending a considerable 1,740 points prior to Rome, having won the Monte Carlo Masters, reached the Barcelona Open final, the Indian Wells semi-finals and the second round in Miami, in 2025.