Carlos Alcaraz pushed to the brink as Alexander Zverev crashes to defeat – ATP Finals Day 1 predictions
The ATP Finals are set to get underway in Turin and the schedule has been reshuffled amid confusion created by Novak Djokovic’s refusal to confirm whether he will compete.
After qualifying for another end-of-season finals, Djokovic has held back on revealing whether he will play in Turin.
He pulled out of last year’s ATP Finals due to injury, amid some suggestions that he didn’t have the motivation to play in an event he has won seven times.
Now the uncertainty over whether he will play in 2025 forced organisers to abandon the traditional plan of players in the same group competing on the same day.
It means Carlos Alcaraz will take on Alex de Minaur in the opening match in the Jimmy Connors Group on Sunday, with Alexander Zverev playing Ben Shelton in the Bjorn Borg group in the evening session.
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Here are our predictions for the opening day of action in Turin.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
Head-to-head record: Alcaraz leads 4-0
The previous meetings between these two suggest there will only be one winner in this curtain raiser for the ATP Finals, but don’t write off De Minaur.
The Aussie battler is one of the most under-rated players on the men’s tour, with his presence as a consistent member of the top 10 over the last couple of years a tribute to his success in getting the very best out of his game.
Alcaraz’s uncertainty playing on indoor courts will give De Minaur hope that he can pull off an upset and don’t be surprised if he pushes the French Open and US Open champion all the way.
With Alcaraz chasing the year-end world No 1 ranking, his motivation should be enough to take him through to the next round.
Verdict: Alcaraz to seal a three-set win.
Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton
Head-to-head record: Zverev leads 4-0
Zverev has won all three of his meetings with Shelton in 2025 and his victories in Munich and Cincinnati fell into the ‘comfortable’ category.
That is a surprisingly one-sided record for a player who has struggled badly this season, with his big serve getting him out of trouble in the matches he has won.
Zverev’s horrible record against Shelton’s big-serving American compatriot Taylor Fritz suggests he struggles against player who have similar power to him and play a game that could be comparable.
Yet Shelton has not troubled him up to now and the task for the ATP Finals debutant is to change that narrative.
Given Zverev’s recent form and question marks over his fitness heading into Turin, this has to be Shelton best chance to get a first win against the world No 3.
Verdict: Shelton to come through in straight sets.
Full order of play for Sunday at the ATP Finals in Turin
Start 11:30 am:
[3] Marcel Granollers (ESP) / Horacio Zeballos (ARG) vs [6] Kevin Krawietz (GER) / Tim Puetz (GER)
Not Before 2 pm:
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) vs [7] Alex de Minaur (AUS)
Not Before 6 pm
: [1] Julian Cash (GBR) / Lloyd Glasspool (GBR) vs [7] Simone Bolelli (ITA) / Andrea Vavassori (ITA)
Not Before 8:30 pm:
[3] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs [5] Ben Shelton (USA)
