Jannik Sinner claims No 1 ranking, absent Novak Djokovic is threatened – Monte Carlo predictions
The Monte Carlo Masters is set to move through the gears over the course of this week, with Jannik Sinner’s bid to dethrone Carlos Alcaraz as world No 1 one of the big talking points in 2026’s first ATP Masters 1000 event on clay.
Sinner will be world No 1 all over again if he wins the tournament and a run to the final will be enough if his big rival Alcaraz suffers an early exit.
There are also some big stories certain to develop over the course of a week that will give a pointer for what we can expect in the clay court season.
Here are some bold predictions for the Monte Carlo Masters, with some names to watch in a tournament played in the most picturesque setting in all of tennis.
Jannik Sinner’s rapid rise confirmed
Sinner was hitting on the Monte Carlo courts just four days after his win at the Miami Open, with his big rival Carlos Alcaraz turning up a couple of days later despite his early exit from his last tournament.
That confirmed Sinner was eager to get his clay court feet moving as he targets the world No 1 ranking.
With no ranking points to defend from this time last year as he was absent from the tour during his doping suspension, Sinner is looking to add another 1,000 ranking points to his title after he added 2,000 points to his record following his wins at Indian Wells and Miami.
Sinner will be world No 1 if he wins in Monte Carlo, and if the Italian reaches the semi-finals and Alcaraz exits before the quarter-finals, Sinner will shoot back to the top of the rankings.
His rise back to the world No 1 ranking now seems inevitable, but Sinner’s rapid elevation is probably ahead of even his own expectations.
Verdict: Sinner will be back as world No 1 next Monday.
More Tennis News
Jannik Sinner set to be crowned as world No 1 – here’s why Carlos Alcaraz can’t stop him
Alcaraz faces a series of big threats
Alcaraz has plenty of pressure on his shoulders as he defends his Monte Carlo Masters title and he will face some big tests before a possible clash with Sinner in Sunday’s final.
Jiri Lehecka could be a tough opponent in round three, with the Czech player boasting a win against Alcaraz on his record from a match in Doha last year.
Alexander Bublik is another potential challenger and Lorenzo Musetti will be threat if he is fully fit after a troubled start to 2026.
Alcaraz will be motivated to banish any suggestion that he is in the midst of a dip in form, but he will be challenged in that mission.
Verdict: Alcaraz to come up short in his title defence.
Felix Auger-Aliassime threatens Djokovic
Novak Djokovic has opted to skip the Monte Carlo tournament and that has opened the door for rivals to challenge his world No 4 status.
That fourth spot in the rankings is crucial as it will dictate seedings for the upcoming Grand Slams at the French Open and Wimbledon.
If Djokovic slips out of the top four, he could play Alcaraz and Sinner before the semi-finals in major events and his ranking could be threatened this week.
Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime has jumped up to fifth position in the live ATP Rankings and if he reaches the final in Monte Carlo, he will be closing in on the No 4 spot in the rankings.
Verdict: Auger-Aliassime won a UTS event on clay last weekend and he could be a player to watch in this phase of the tennis season.
Look out for – Alexander Bublik, Alexander Zverev
Bublik showed his clay court prowess when he reached the quarter-finals at the French Open last year, so he will be a player to watch over the next few weeks.
With a game that has so much variety and a talent that allows him to take matches away from opponents when he is on fire, Bublik is a dangerous floater in Alcaraz’s half of the draw.
What of Zverev? The world No 3 will be excited to get the red dirt under his feet again, as this is a surface he has thrived on in the past.
Zverev was well beaten by Sinner at the Miami Open and he suffered an exit in his first match in Monte Carlo last year, but he appears to be finding some form and will be a threat if that big serve is firing.
Verdict: Bublik to reach the quarter-finals and Zverev should reach the semi-finals.
READ NEXT: Stefanos Tsitsipas -16 in ATP Rankings as ‘decline’ continues with Monte Carlo Masters exit
