Aryna Sabalenka makes shock withdrawal as world No 1 battle set to heat up
Aryna Sabalenka’s hopes of a dominant Asian swing have been dented after the four-time Grand Slam champion was confirmed to be withdrawing from the upcoming China Open.
World No 1 Sabalenka, who won her second US Open title less than two weeks ago, will miss the WTA 1000 event in Beijing due to what the tournament has described as a “minor injury”, with the Belarusian releasing a statement via the tournament.
She said: “Due to an injury sustained at the US Open and the ongoing recovery process, I regretfully announce that I will withdraw from this year’s China Open. I will focus on my recovery and strive to return to 100% condition as soon as possible.
“I can’t wait to see my fans in China! I look forward to returning to Beijing next year and wish you all the best for the tournament.”
Sabalenka’s withdrawal means she will likely not be in action until the Wuhan Open, the final WTA 1000 event of 2025, where she will be looking to win the title for a fourth straight edition of the event.
After a busy year which has seen her go deep at the vast majority of events she has contested, it may be wise for the 27-year-old to pull out of Beijing if there are any potential niggles that could be worsened by her participation.
However, her decision has also opened the door in the WTA Rankings for leading rival Iga Swiatek, whose hopes of a return to world No 1 by the end of the year have been boosted by Sabalenka’s decision.
How could it affect world No 1 race?
Sabalenka currently has a 3,292-point lead over Swiatek in the WTA Rankings (11,225 points to 7,933), though she is only 2,077 points ahead in the WTA Race to Riyadh, which monitors points won in 2025.
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While that is still a comfortable cushion for the Belarusian for now, Swiatek has the chance to significantly close the gap before the world No 1 returns to court.
Swiatek is in action at the WTA 500 event in Seoul this week and is still currently set to compete in Beijing next week.
Should the Pole triumph at both events, she would earn a combined 1,500 points — moving her within just 600 points of Sabalenka in the points standings for the season.
And, even if Swiatek does not triumph at one or both events, she can still close the gap on Sabalenka in the world rankings.
The Pole only has 400 points from the WTA Finals to defend for the rest of the season, having been provisionally suspended from the Korea Open, China Open, and Wuhan Open last year.
In contrast, Sabalenka has 400 points at the WTA Finals to defend herself, but has 1,000 points in Wuhan, and 215 quarter-finalist points in Beijing.
Should Swiatek triumph in Beijing this year — she won the event in 2023, so it is a distinct possibility — that would mean a 1,215-point swing between the two at one event.
She also has no points to defend in Wuhan, so, assuming she plays, she can close the gap on Sabalenka regardless of how the Belarusian fares in her title defence.
Both women are now also likely to be affected by rules concerning mandatory WTA events and points, though it will be the world No 1 who is affected more by this as things stand.
Sabalenka’s China Open withdrawal does not guarantee that she will lose the world No 1 ranking, and she still has a cushion for now.
However, it does open the door for Swiatek, whose chances of a third year-end No 1 finish have now increased.
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