ATP Finals: How Alex de Minaur can still reach semi-final after stunning Taylor Fritz win
Alex de Minaur overcame his demons to seal a stunning win over Taylor Fritz at the ATP Finals on Thursday — a result that holds huge ramifications in Turin.
After a heartbreaking loss to Lorenzo Musetti on Tuesday, de Minaur’s hopes looked all but over at the year-end championships, with the Australian falling to a 0-5 career record at the ATP Finals.
However, a 7-6(3), 6-3 win over Fritz provides the perfect tonic after his loss to Musetti, and holds huge significance for himself, the Italian, and Carlos Alcaraz in Group Jimmy Connors.
What does victory mean for de Minaur?
After opening losses to Alcaraz and Musetti in Turin, de Minaur’s ATP Finals hopes were hanging by a thread heading into Thursday.
The only way the Australian could have any hope of qualification was if he could beat sixth seed and 2024 runner-up Fritz in straight sets — something he was able to do in style.
Victory for de Minaur this afternoon now means that he will qualify for the semi-final if Alcaraz beats Musetti in the final Group Jimmy Connors match tonight, a result that would see the Australian finish second.
What does defeat mean for Fritz?
Fritz had one win and one loss to his name across his first two matches, beating Musetti in straight sets before a three-set defeat to Alcaraz on Tuesday.
That set won against Alcaraz put the American in with a solid chance of qualification come Thursday, with his destiny largely still within his own hands.
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However, a straight-set loss to de Minaur was the absolute worst-case scenario for Fritz, and last year’s finalist is now officially out of the tournament and is unable to progress — regardless of Alcaraz and Musetti’s result.
What does it mean for Alcaraz and Musetti?
Alcaraz and Musetti will be focusing on their own match, but this afternoon’s result holds huge significance for both men in this group.
The good news for Alcaraz is that he has now officially qualified for the knockout stage, with neither de Minaur nor Fritz able to overtake him.
The Spaniard will top the group should he beat Musetti on Thursday night, and face the runner-up from Group Bjorn Borg in the last four — one of Alexander Zverev or Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Should Alcaraz lose to Musetti, he would finish in second place behind the Italian — booking a blockbuster semi-final against Jannik Sinner, the winner of Group Bjorn Borg.
De Minaur’s win now means that Musetti must absolutely defeat Alcaraz on Thursday to have any chance of progression.
If Musetti were to lose, he, de Minaur, and Fritz would all hold three points — though the Australian would reach the semi-final due to a higher percentage of sets won.
A win for the Italian would see him top the group ahead of Alcaraz, moving ahead of the Spaniard on head-to-head.
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