Why Jannik Sinner won’t be the top seed at ATP Finals even if he returns to No 1
Jannik Sinner is four wins away from replacing Carlos Alcaraz at No 1 in the ATP Rankings, but even if he manages to pull off the feat, he won’t be the top seed at the ATP Finals.
After 65 consecutive weeks at the top of the rankings, Sinner lost his position to his Spanish rival after the US Open at the beginning of September and many expected the six-time Grand Slam winner to remain there for the rest of the year.
However, Alcaraz’s shock second-round loss at the Paris Masters has opened the door for the Italian to return to No 1 as Sinner can move ahead if he wins the final ATP 1000 trophy of the year.
But he won’t be the top seed at the ATP Finals as the seedings are based on the ATP Rankings Race To Turin and Alcaraz is currently on 11,050 points with Sinner able to get to a maximum of 10,000 with a title run in Paris.
And when you do the sums for the official rankings, you will get to the same tally.
Alcaraz has 11,250 points in the Live Rankings and Sinner can reach a maximum of 11,500 points if he lifts the trophy at La Défense Arena, but he will only be top for one week before the Spaniard regains the crown.
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The points for the 2024 ATP Finals will drop after the final week of the regular ATP Tour action, which is November 3-9 with the Hellenic Championships and Moselle Open the last two tournaments of the year.
Alcaraz and Sinner won’t feature so they won’t be able to add to their tallies before the points drop, and the latter will drop 1,500 points as he won last year’s season-ending event undefeated, while the Spaniard will lose only 200 points.
Hypothetically, Sinner would be on 11,500 with a Paris title and will move to 10,000 with Alcaraz on 11,050.
So Alcaraz will be the top seed and will head Group Jimmy Connors with Sinner topping Group Bjorn Borg.
As for the rest of the seedings, Alexander Zverev is still alive at the Paris Masters and he is on course to be the third seed.
The German is on 4,660 points in the Race To Turin, but if he doesn’t make the latter stages of the tournament, then it will give Novak Djokovic a chance to overtake him as the 24-time Grand Slam winner has entered the Hellenic ATP 250 event.
Zverev will drop 600 points from the 2024 ATP Finals while Djokovic (4,580) doesn’t have any points to defend.
Taylor Fritz is the other player who has already qualified for the year-end tournament in Turin and he could move ahead of Djokovic if he wins the title in Paris.
But all of that might not matter as Djokovic looks set to miss the ATP Finals for a second consecutive year as the tennis great looks set to stick to his promise to play only the Grand Slams and events that have a significant meaning to him.
