Iga Swiatek denied history as Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina star – our Australian Open predictions
The draw has been made, and 128 of the best tennis players in the world are preparing to battle to try and lift the Australian Open women’s singles title over the next fortnight.
It was Madison Keys who lifted the title twelve months ago, stunning two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the final, and all eyes will be on who can lift the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup this year.
Here, ahead of the start of play on Sunday [January 18], we make our predictions for the 2026 Australian Open women’s singles draw.
First Quarter
Projected Q/F: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (7) Jasmine Paolini
Twelve months after her reign was ended by Keys, will Sabalenka be able to regain her crown over the coming fortnight?
The world No 1’s dominant run to the Brisbane International title was a huge statement of intent, and her draw early on is kind, with wildcard Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah in round one, potentially Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in round two, and out-of-form 28th seed Emma Raducanu in round three.
A potential fourth-round clash against 14th seed Clara Tauson or 17th seed Victoria Mboko should be Sabalenka’s toughest test before the last eight, though she has not failed to reach a quarter-final in her last 12 Grand Slam appearances.
The Belarusian’s projected quarter-final opponent is seventh seed Paolini, who will be looking to better her third-round exit from twelve months ago.
The Italian’s early rounds look largely navigable before a potential hurdle in the form of 29th seed Iva Jovic in round three, which is followed by a hypothetical clash against 11th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in round four.
Tennis News
Australian Open 2026 women’s draw: Swiatek faces tricky path, Sabalenka & Gauff on collision course
Fresh off her career-best season, Alexandrova could face a tough round three against 20th seed Marta Kostyuk — who beat three top-10 players on her way to the Brisbane final.
Prediction: Sabalenka def Kostyuk
Second Quarter
Projected Q/F: (3) Coco Gauff vs (8) Mirra Andreeva
Some question marks linger around Gauff’s serve heading into the Australian Open, though the third seed and reigning French Open champion has a fairly kind draw early on.
Gauff starts her campaign against Kamila Rakhimova and then could face her idol, Venus Williams, in round two, before a potential test against 32nd seed and former Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova.
Compatriot and 15th seed Emma Navarro is her projected opponent in round four, though 19th seed — and former Australian Open semi-finalist — Karolina Muchova is also one to watch in this mini-section.
After a difficult end to 2025, eighth seed Andreeva has been chucked right in the deep end with a tricky opener against Donna Vekic in the second part of this quarter.
And the pathway does not get any easier after that for the Russian, who could face Maria Sakkari in round two, 26th seed Dayana Yastremska in round three, and 12th seed Elina Svitolina in round four.
Svitolina was a quarter-finalist in Melbourne last year and started her 2026 with an impressive run to the Auckland Open title, though could face Barbora Krejcikova or 23rd seed Diana Shnaider early on.
Prediction: Gauff def Svitolina
Third Quarter
Projected Q/F: (6) Jessica Pegula vs (4) Amanda Anisimova
Anisimova was one of the best stories in women’s tennis in 2025, and she enters the Australian Open looking to go one better than her Wimbledon and US Open runner-up finishes.
The American appeared to be struggling physically during a loss to Kostyuk in Brisbane, though has a kind draw until round three, where she could face the unpredictable 27th seed Sofia Kenin — the champion in Melbourne back in 2020.
Anisimova could then face a battle against 13th seed Linda Noskova in the fourth round, a rematch of the three-set China Open final the two much-improved stars contested last Autumn.
Also in this quarter is sixth seed Pegula, who will be looking to reach the last eight in Melbourne for the first time since 2023.
Pegula could face 25th seed and 2025 semi-finalist Paula Badosa in the third round, before a clash against ninth seed and reigning champion Keys in round four.
Keys kicks off her title defence against Oleksandra Oliynykova in round one, and could go on to take on 22nd seed Leylah Fernandez in the third round.
Prediction: Pegula def Anisimova
Fourth Quarter
Projected Q/F: (5) Elena Rybakina vs (2) Iga Swiatek
Twice a semi-finalist inside Melbourne Park, Swiatek will be eyeing up the chance to complete the Career Grand Slam at the Australian Open this year.
The Pole was far from convincing during the United Cup, but she has a kind opening draw against qualifier Yuan Yue and should also face little trouble against Marie Bouzkova or Renata Zarazua in round two.
Perhaps the first real test for Swiatek will be in round three against 31st seed Anna Kalinskaya, who has pushed her on hard courts before, and then a potential blockbuster against 16th seed and two-time Australian Open champion Naomi Osaka in round four.
Osaka was also not in peak form at the United Cup but was in strong form last summer, and the winner of a potential clash between the two could then face fifth seed Rybakina.
A finalist here in 2023, Rybakina’s early draw is kind — with 30th seed Maya Joint her potential opponent in round three — though she could then face 10th seed Belinda Bencic, who was in strong United Cup form.
Bencic herself could face a tough third round against 21st seed Mertens, before a contest against the big-hitting Rybakina.
Prediction: Rybakina def Swiatek
Semi-final predictions
Sabalenka def Gauff
Rybakina def Pegula
Final predictions
Sabalenka def Rybakina
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