How quickly could Jannik Sinner replace Carlos Alcaraz as world No 1 in 2026?

Oli Dickson Jefford 18 Nov 2025 9:00 PM

Pictured L-R: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

ATP Tour stars Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have continued to dominate in 2025, and their reign at the very top shows no signs of slowing down.

The pair arguably extended their advantage over the rest of the ATP this season, with Alcaraz ending the year as the world No 1, just ahead of Sinner.

However, with the 2026 season set to start in less than two months, the Italian will surely be eyeing up a quick return to the very top.

As it stands

Alcaraz’s ATP Finals campaign was enough for him to seal the year-end No 1 spot, despite Sinner ultimately taking home the title.

The Spaniard ends the season with 12,050 points, with Sinner holding 11,500 points after the successful defence of his year-end championships title in Turin.

While the Italian holds a staggering 6,340-point lead over world No 3 Alexander Zverev in the ATP Rankings, he is just 550 points behind Alcaraz at the end of the year.

That means that, come 2026, the battle for the top spot will likely reignite once again.

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Could Sinner regain the world No 1 ranking at the Australian Open?

Sinner and Alcaraz are set to play an exhibition match in Incheon on January 10th, just eight days before the opening Grand Slam of the season: the Australian Open.

Last year, the Australian Open was the first official tournament of the year for both men, and that looks set to be the case once again.

With no points to defend before Melbourne, both Alcaraz and Sinner will remain on their current totals of 12,050 and 11,500 points, respectively, ahead of the first Grand Slam of the year.

That means that, regardless of the result, Alcaraz will remain as the world No 1 post-event.

The Spaniard is defending just 400 quarter-final points at the event and, with a 550-point cushion over the Italian, cannot drop below Sinner’s total of ranking points after the event.

Alcaraz’s cause is helped by the fact that Sinner is set to defend a full 2,000 points as the reigning Australian Open champion, having won the title the past two years.

There is a strong chance that Alcaraz will have increased his lead at the top post-tournament, though Sinner could well claw back ground across the spring.

When could Sinner replace Alcaraz?

Though the rivalry between the two attracted huge headlines, the biggest story in tennis this year was undoubtedly Sinner’s three-month suspension.

After winning the Australian Open in late January, the Italian settled his case with the World Anti-Doping Agency and was ultimately banned from competing from February to May.

That means that, after the Australian Open — which will end on February 1st — Sinner will not have any points to defend until the Italian Open in May.

In an unusual turn of events, the 24-year-old therefore has a huge chance next spring to gain a huge amount of ranking points, and potentially return to world No 1.

That period of time spans four Masters 1000 events — Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Madrid — all of which Sinner will likely play.

A potential 4,000 points are up for grabs across those events, though the Italian could well play some ATP 500-level events outside of those as well.

Across that three-month period, Alcaraz has 2,340 points to defend — including 1,000 points as the reigning Monte Carlo Masters champion, and 500 points at the Rotterdam Open.

There will be opportunities for him to gain significant points as well, with just 10 points to defend in Miami, and no points to defend in Madrid after his withdrawal this spring.

However, there can be little doubt that he will be under significant pressure from his closest rival next spring.

And, he will have more points to defend than the Italian in both Rome and at the French Open next year, having beaten Sinner in both finals this season.

Alcaraz has 3,000 points to defend across both tournaments, with Sinner defending 1,950 points as the runner-up at both events.

There are, of course, no guarantees, but Sinner may well fancy his chances of a return to the top of the rankings at some point next spring.