Will we finally get an Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek Grand Slam final? US Open women’s singles predictions
The Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon have all been and gone: only one Grand Slam tournament remains.
Action at the US Open gets underway this weekend, and the women’s draw is just as fascinating as ever, with a range of leading contenders looking to hold off an array of surprise packages and dark horses.
Here, we make our predictions for what looks set to be a fascinating fortnight of action in New York.
First Quarter
Projected Q/F: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (7) Jasmine Paolini
Sabalenka has won three titles in 2025 and has arguably been the most consistent player all season, making it all the more surprising that she’s missed out on a Grand Slam title.
Having faced near misses at all three majors so far this year, the world No 1 will be more determined than ever to defend her US Open crown, and is a reliable pick to progress deep into the draw.
Sabalenka’s first significant test could come in round four against the fast-rising 14th seed Clara Tauson, who beat her back in Dubai, though the Dane faces a tough opener against rising star Alex Eala.
A potential quarter-final against seventh seed Paolini is a distinct possibility, with the Italian looking back near her best after an encouraging run to the Cincinnati final.
However, the Italian’s Grand Slam form has not been fantastic this season – she is yet to reach the last eight of a Slam in 2025 – and does not have the kindest draw.
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Paolini could face rising star Iva Jovic in round two, 32nd seed McCartney Kessler in round three, and ninth seed Elena Rybakina in round four.
Rybakina herself faces a tough early draw to navigate, with a potential round three versus Emma Raducanu or 24th seed Veronika Kudermetova.
Prediction: Sabalenka def Paolini
Second Quarter
Projected Q/F: (4) Jessica Pegula vs (5) Mirra Andreeva
Pegula was the runner-up to Sabalenka twelve months ago, though the American’s form has not been close to that kind of result so far this summer.
The American has been open about her form struggles and, with big points to defend, does not have a kind draw.
The fourth seed could take on 30th seed Dayana Yastremska in round three and 16th seed Belinda Bencic in round four, the Swiss being a former US Open semi-finalist, and a recent semi-finalist at Wimbledon.
On paper, Pegula is then set to face Andreeva in the last eight, though the fifth seed herself has played limited tennis this summer – losing early in Montreal before withdrawing from Cincinnati.
Andreeva does not have the kindest draw, with 25th Jelena Ostapenko potentially waiting in round three, though her consistent results at big events in 2025 have been impressive.
The Russian also has one advantage in having already beaten 10th seed and 2024 semi-finalist Emma Navarro, her projected round-four opponent, convincingly at Wimbledon this summer.
Also keep an eye on 22nd seed and Canadian rising star Victoria Mboko, who faces Barbora Krejcikova in the pick of round-one ties before a potential meeting versus Navarro in the third round.
Prediction: Andreeva def Bencic
Third Quarter
Projected Q/F: (6) Madison Keys vs (3) Coco Gauff
Gauff is the reigning French Open and WTA Finals champion, yet she enters her home Grand Slam facing huge question marks amid her recent service struggles.
That has led to a big coaching change, with Gavin MacMillan replacing Matt Daly, though the 2023 US Open champion still faces a tough draw in New York.
Gauff faces Ajla Tomljanovic in round one and Donna Vekic – who beat her at Paris 2024 – in round two, before a potential fourth-round clash against 23rd seed Naomi Osaka.
The Japanese is seeded at a major for the first time since the 2022 Australian Open, though she may have to battle past 15th seed Daria Kasatkina if she wants to return to the second week of a Grand Slam.
The top half of the quarter is highlighted by sixth seed and Australian Open champion Keys, a finalist here back in 2017, with further semi-finals in 2018 and 2023 to her name.
Keys has what seems to be a fairly navigable draw early on, with the retiring Petra Kvitova a potential round-two rival, though she could face 2023 and 2024 semi-finalist Karolina Muchova in round four.
Muchova herself faces a fascinating first round against none other than Venus Williams, making a record-extending 25th US Open appearance.
Prediction: Keys def Gauff
Fourth Quarter
Projected Q/F: (8) Amanda Anisimova vs (2) Iga Swiatek
A champion at Wimbledon and the Cincinnati Open already this summer, can Swiatek’s resurgence culminate in a second US Open triumph this fortnight?
The draw Gods have certainly been beneficial in terms of the world No 2’s hopes, with the Pole handed an advantageous pathway compared to the likes of projected semi-final opponent Gauff.
Swiatek could face 29th seed Anna Kalinskaya, whom she beat in Cincinnati, in the third round, with 13th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova a potential test in the fourth round.
All that could lead to a quarter-final versus eighth seed Anisimova, just weeks after her extraordinary double-bagel victory over the American at Wimbledon.
Anisimova has bounced back fairly solidly since that defeat and has a solid draw early on, with 26th seed Sofia Kenin her first potential seeded opponent.
The eighth seed could then face 12th seed Elina Svitolina in the fourth round, the Ukrainian a semi-finalist at this event back in 2019.
Svitolina could face fellow former semi-finalist Maria Sakkari in round two, and potentially breakout star Lois Boisson in round three.
Prediction: Swiatek def Svitolina
Semi-final predictions
Sabalenka def Andreeva
Swiatek def Keys
Final prediction
Swiatek def Sabalenka
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