Australian Open: How Jack Draper & Holger Rune’s withdrawals could affect tournament seedings
The Australian Open is less than a month away, and two big-name ATP Tour stars have already confirmed they will be unable to compete in Melbourne.
Jack Draper and Holger Rune — both former world No 4s at the peak of their powers — are set to miss the first Grand Slam event of 2026 due to long-term injury issues, and will drop the fourth-round points they both earned at the tournament in 2025.
Both Draper and Rune are highly ranked, and their absences from the Australian Open could well significantly shake up the seedings for the men’s singles event.
Why are both Draper and Rune absent?
There are still three weeks until the start of the first Grand Slam event of 2026, but we already know why both Draper and Rune will be absent.
World No 15 Rune suffered a significant Achilles tear while competing in Stockholm last October, and is set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines as he recovers.
The Dane’s comeback date is yet to be determined, though the injury is serious — and, rather unsurprisingly, he was not on the men’s singles entry list released earlier this month.
Draper has also been sidelined for a not-insignificant period of time, with the world No 10 having not competed since withdrawing from the second round of the US Open.
That was his first appearance since losing in the second round of Wimbledon, with an arm injury disrupting what had been a strong season up until that point.
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The Brit’s arm issue has not yet recovered, and, after withdrawing from a string of exhibitions, he confirmed on Thursday that he would skip the whole Australian swing.
Where would Draper and Rune have been seeded?
Seedings for any tournament are made one week before the event starts, meaning that the Australian Open men’s seedings will be set on the ATP Rankings that are released on January 12, 2026.
It is impossible to know exactly where either man would have been seeded, with players potentially able to move up or down the rankings before them.
However, Draper is currently ranked 10th while Rune is ranked 15th, meaning they would have both likely remained as top-16 seeds for action inside Melbourne Park.
How will Draper’s withdrawal affect the seedings?
Had Draper been fit enough to play, and had his ranking stayed at No 10, he would have been the 10th seed at the tournament.
The Brit has no points to defend prior to Melbourne, meaning he could well still be the world No 10 by January 12.
The No 10 seed is part of the 9-12 seeding bracket at the four Grand Slams, and these players are projected to face a 5-8 seed in the fourth round of a major.
With Draper absent, the world No 13 at the time of the tournament is set to be the 12th seed at the event, with everyone else ranked below his ranking at the time also moving up one place in the pecking order.
Currently, three-time Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev is the world No 13.
How will Rune’s withdrawal affect the seedings?
Currently ranked 15th in the world, Rune will also not drop any points prior to the Australian Open — meaning his ranking at the time the seedings are made is also unlikely to vary too much from his current spot.
If he were still the world No 15 by January 12, he would be the 14th seed in the draw, once you factor in Draper’s withdrawal.
Being the 14th seed puts you in the 13-16 bracket, meaning you are not projected to face anyone ranked higher than you until round four, when you are projected to face one of the top four seeds.
The 17-24th bracket is projected to face a player ranked higher than them in the third round, any seed from the 9-16 bracket.
Assuming that the Dane is still in the top 16 by the cutoff date, both his and Draper’s absence would mean that the world No 17 and No 18 at the time the seedings are made become top-16 seeds, avoiding a higher-ranked opponent until at least round four.
The world No 25 and No 26 will then be pushed into the 17-24 seeding bracket, meaning they will be projected to face a 9-16 seed in round three — and not one of the top eight seeds, as the 25-32 seeds do.
Draper and Rune’s withdrawals also mean that, as it stands, the world No 33 and 34 will also be inside the top 32 seeds by the time the draw is made.
Projected Australian Open men’s seeds (as of December 27, 2025)
1) Carlos Alcaraz
2) Jannik Sinner
3) Alexander Zverev
4) Novak Djokovic
5) Felix Auger-Aliassime
6) Taylor Fritz
7) Alex de Minaur
8) Lorenzo Musetti
9) Ben Shelton
No 10 Draper OUT
10) Alexander Bublik
11) Casper Ruud
12) Daniil Medvedev
13) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
No 15 Rune OUT
14) Andrey Rublev
15) Jiri Lehecka
16) Karen Khachanov
17) Jakub Mensik
18) Tommy Paul
19) Francisco Cerundolo
20) Flavio Cobolli
21) Denis Shapovalov
22) Joao Fonseca
23) Tallon Griekspoor
24) Luciano Darderi
25) Cameron Norrie
26) Learner Tien
27) Arthur Rinderknech
28) Frances Tiafoe
29) Valentin Vacherot
30) Tomas Machac
31) Brandon Nakashima
32) Stefanos Tsitsipas
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