Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: Can Italian claw back ground in world No 1 battle?
Carlos Alcaraz left the Australian Open having made history with a historic triumph, while Jannik Sinner’s run at the tournament was snapped in sensational style.
Alcaraz’s victory in Melbourne made him the youngest man in the Open Era to complete the Career Grand Slam and saw the 22-year-old lift a seventh Grand Slam singles title overall, beating Novak Djokovic in four sets in the final.
In contrast, Sinner’s title defence was ended by Djokovic in a thrilling five-set semi-final, with the Italian’s 19-match win streak at the Australian Open coming to a stunning end.
However, results in Melbourne tee up a fascinating battle for the world No 1 ranking between Alcaraz and Sinner in the coming three months — with the Italian handed a potential opportunity to return to the top.
As it stands
This week’s ATP Rankings update has seen things swing firmly in the favour of Alcaraz, following his Australian Open triumph on Sunday.
Victory in Melbourne saw Alcaraz boost his ranking points tally by 1,600 points, with the 2,000 points from his triumph replacing the 400 quarter-final points he earned in 2025.
In contrast, Sinner’s 800 ranking points for reaching the semi-final replaced the 2,000 points he won for his Australian Open victory last January, meaning he has effectively dropped 1,200 points.
Alcaraz now has a staggering 13,650 points in the ATP Rankings, with Sinner behind on 10,300 points after action in Melbourne.
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What happens next?
The next few months promise to be fascinating in the battle for the world No 1 ranking, with Sinner having no points to defend.
The Italian was suspended for three months after the 2025 Australian Open due to his high-profile doping violation, and, after winning the title in Melbourne, was not allowed to compete until the Italian Open in May.
That means that Sinner can only gain ranking points until May 2026, handing him the opportunity to close the gap to Alcaraz.
We now know the gap will close shortly following Alcaraz’s withdrawal from the Rotterdam Open, which takes place next week.
Alcaraz had 500 points to defend as the reigning champion at the tournament, and his absence means he will drop to 13,150 points on Monday, February 16.
However, the Spaniard will still have a 2,850-point lead at that stage.
Will Alcaraz hold on or can Sinner reclaim No 1?
No Grand Slam tournaments are held in the three-month period where Sinner has no points to defend, but there are plenty of ranking points at stake.
Most notably, four Masters 1000 events — Indian Wells, the Miami Open, the Monte Carlo Masters, and the Madrid Open — will all take place in that period, with 4,000 points on offer across the four events.
Before Indian Wells, both men will also be in action at the ATP 500 Qatar Open from February 16-21, where Alcaraz has 100 points to defend as a quarter-finalist last year.
The Spaniard also has 330 ranking points to defend from his Barcelona Open runner-up finish in April 2025, with the world No 1 confirmed to be in action at the event once again this year.
The next three months offer Sinner a clean slate for points, with the Italian likely to compete in Doha and the first four Masters 1000 events of the season before he then has points to defend in Rome in May.
However, Alcaraz has comparatively fewer points to defend over the next three months than he does at other stages of the season.
The Spaniard has 1,000 points to defend as the reigning Monte Carlo Masters champion, though he has just 400 points to defend from Indian Wells after his semi-final defeat last March.
He then has just 10 points to defend at the Miami Open, following a shock round-two exit in 2025, while he has no Madrid Open points to defend — withdrawing from his home Masters event last April.
From now until the very start of the Italian Open in May, Alcaraz has just 2,340 points to defend across all levels.
500 of those ranking points will drop off his ranking from Rotterdam, but several key events — most notably the Masters events in Indian Wells, Miami, and Madrid — also give him a notable opportunity to improve on his ranking points tally.
It would be easy to assume that the next three months solely offer Sinner an opportunity in the ATP Rankings, but there is no denying Alcaraz can benefit after, by his own high standards, a challenging spell this time twelve months ago.
The big swing against Alcaraz could come across the Italian Open and Roland Garros, where he has a total of 3,000 points to defend as the reigning champion at both events.
In contrast, Sinner has 1,950 points to defend as the runner-up at both tournaments.
The Italian certainly has the opportunity to close the gap before then, though Alcaraz still has a very strong chance of remaining world No 1 into the early summer.
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