Why Jannik Sinner needs Vienna Open title to boost slim year-end world No 1 hopes
Jannik Sinner returns to official ATP Tour action at the Vienna Open this week, and the world No 2 will look to get back to winning ways at the ATP 500 event.
Though the Italian was triumphant at the Six Kings Slam exhibition in Riyadh this past weekend, action in Austria will be his first official ATP event since he retired injured at the Shanghai Masters earlier this month.
That retirement in Shanghai greatly dented his hopes of finishing as the year-end No 1 ahead of main rival Carlos Alcaraz, and the Vienna Open will prove key for Sinner’s chances of overturning a significant deficit to seal back-to-back year-end No 1 finishes.
As it stands
Alcaraz replaced Sinner as the world No 1 after beating the Italian in the US Open final last month, and has remained on top spot ever since.
The Spaniard, who is not in action this week, holds 11,340 points, with world No 2 Sinner holding exactly 10,000 points heading into the Vienna Open.
The gap between the two grew to 1,340 points after Sinner’s shock round-three retirement in Shanghai, and there is an even greater gap between the two in the Race to Turin.
Sinner holds 8,500 points for 2025, but that is comfortably behind his main rival, who has amassed a staggering 11,040 points already this season.
The 2,540-point cushion between the two is significant, though it is technically still possible for the Italian to overhaul Alcaraz in the year-end race.
Tennis News
Novak Djokovic’s schedule for rest of 2025 revealed after Paris Masters decision
However, it would require a sizable swing, and that swing absolutely must start in Vienna this week for Sinner.
What does Sinner need?
Sinner has three remaining ATP-level events for the rest of 2024: the Vienna Open, the Paris Indoors, and the ATP Finals.
Should he win all three titles — and remain unbeaten at the ATP Finals — he would earn 3,000 points, potentially enough to overhaul Alcaraz if the Spaniard were to struggle to pick up points.
However, factor out Vienna, and the 24-year-old would only earn a maximum of 2,500 points, not enough to challenge Alcaraz even if the Italian were to win both tournaments.
That makes the Vienna Open imperative to Sinner’s hopes, and ideally, he will need a full 500 points for lifting the title.
It would still be possible for him to capture the year-end No 1 ranking without winning Vienna, but in all likelihood, a title here is absolutely imperative to any hopes he may have.
A run to the title would put the four-time Grand Slam champion on 9,000 points for 2025 so far, closing the gap to Alcaraz to 2,040 points for the season.
That would just about keep Sinner in touch with the world No 1 in the year-end race.
Jannik Sinner’s hypothetical Vienna Open race points
Round 1: 8,500
Round 2: 8,550
Quarter-final: 8,600
Semi-final: 8,700
Runner-up: 8,830
Champion: 9,000
Alcaraz’s Race to Turin points: 11,040
Alcaraz’s strong chance
A strong run in Vienna will keep Sinner in contention, though Alcaraz will still firmly be in the driver’s seat.
With Sinner able to earn a maximum of 3,000 points for the rest of the year and Alcaraz already 2,540 points ahead, the Spaniard needs just 461 more points this season to guarantee year-end No 1 — regardless of how the Italian fares.
The Spaniard’s already strong hopes are boosted by the sheer volume of points on offer in Paris and Turin.
A run to the title in Paris, the final Masters event of 2025, will earn the champion 1,000 ranking points, which would be more than enough for Alcaraz to take home the year-end No 1 ranking.
However, the runner-up would earn 650, which would also be enough for Alcaraz.
It has not traditionally been the strongest event for either Alcaraz or Sinner, which means that the race could go down to the ATP Finals, where the Italian is defending his title.
However, with 200 points available per round-robin win at the ATP Finals, Alcaraz could just need an unbeaten group stage to earn 600 points.
Hypothetically, a round-three run in Paris (100 points) and two round-robin wins (400 points) will also be enough to hold off Sinner.
Read Next: Bumper 2025 ATP Finals prize money confirmed: How much could Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz earn?
