Jannik Sinner becomes world No 1, Carlos Alcaraz dethroned – clay court predictions
The clay court season is upon us and for five of the game’s biggest names, the stakes are about to get very high.
With the tennis ranking system based around a model that sees players attempting to defend the points they collected from the same phase of the previous year, there could be some high-profile dips in fortune on the agenda over the next few weeks.
Here is your Tennis365 guide to the players with the most to lose in the clay court phase of the ATP Tour.
Carlos Alcaraz
Points to defend on clay: 4,300
More Tennis News
Carlos Alcaraz & Alexander Zverev’s Indian Wells prize money & ranking points after exit
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner’s biggest rival named by Pat Cash – and it’s not Djokovic or Zverev
The world No 1 will face huge pressure as he heads to Monte Carlo trying to defend the title he won so impressively last year.
Anything less than another victory in that tournament will see Alcaraz’s ranking take a hit and he will then have 330 points to defend from his run to to the final of last year’s Barcelona Open.
Throw in his 1,000 ranking points from his win at the Rome Masters last year and the 2,000 points on his record from his second successive Roland Garros title and this is a period of the year when Alcaraz will struggle to improve on his ranking.
If he fails to match the remarkable standards he achieved last year, it will open the door for Jannik Sinner to close the gap further in the race for top spot in the ATP Rankings.
Verdict: Alcaraz will lose the world No 1 ranking at some point in the clay court season.
Jannik Sinner
Points to defend on clay: 1,900
Even though Sinner missed a chunk of last year’s clay court swing on the ATP Tour as he served a doping ban, the Italian still has a sizeable points haul to defend.
That total could have been even healthier if he had won one of the match points he held against Carlos Alcaraz in their epic French Open final last June, but he still has plenty of peril heading into this part of the season.
A run to the Rome final and then at Roland Garros confirmed Sinner is mastering clay courts after struggling to play his best tennis in the early phase of his career and this year, he can add the Monte-Carlo and Madrid Masters to his schedule as he looks to boost his points haul.
Verdict: Sinner will be world No 1 again soon and probably in double quick time.
Lorenzo Musetti
Points to defend on clay: 2,300
This Italian enjoyed a breakthrough year in 2025 and he was especially impressive when he set foot on his favoured clay courts.
A run to the final of last season’s Monte-Carlo Masters added 650 ranking points to his record and he then added another 400 points with a semi-final appearance at the Madrid Masters.
Another 400 points came his way as he made the semi-finals in front of his home fans in Rome and he collected 800 points from his semi-final appearance at Roland Garros.
Musetti has been struggling with injury since he was forced to pull out of the Australian Open when he was on the brink of beating Novak Djokovic and if he is not fully fit, some early defeats could have a brutal impact on his ranking.
Verdict: Alarm bells will be ringing for Musetti, as he could have a big rankings fall over the next few weeks.
Casper Ruud
Points to defend on clay: 1,500
The Norwegian won the Madrid Masters last year, beating Britain’s Jack Draper in a brilliant final in the Spanish capital and he could face a rankings slide if he fails to match that display in May.
With two appearances in the French Open final on his record, Ruud is a master of weaving his spell on clay courts when his game is firing, but confidence appears to have been an issue for this experienced performer in recent months.
Ruud has suffered an inconsistent season, but he has long been one of the more prolific performers on clay courts and will hope he can find his best form in this phase of the season.
Verdict: Ruud has a lot of ranking points to defend and he has not shown the form that will allow him to protect those points in 2026.
Alexander Zverev
Points to defend on clay: 1,410
Zverev was in the midst of a slump in form at this stage of last season, with a return to clay courts not enough to fire his burners.
A French Open finalist in 2024, Zverev has his chances to beat Carlos Alcaraz in what was an epic Roland Garros championship match and this German has produced some of his best performances on clay.
He won an ATP 500 tournament in front of his home fans in Munich on clay last year and will be keen to defend those points, but the world No 3 will dare to believe he can build on his ranking during the clay court run as he has shown some signs of a return to form in recent weeks.
Verdict: After months of concern, Zverev showed signs of improvement at the Miami Open and he needs to continue his more aggressive approach to hold onto the world No 3 ranking.
